How Good Will Jay Bruce Be This Year?

Feb

2009

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Fantasy Baseball Blog

Written by Christopher Mulligan

Jay Bruce is widely viewed as the best young left-handed hitter in baseball. He will be turning just 22 years old in April and it's one of those cases where the sky is truly the limit as far as potential goes. He was so good in the Minor Leagues that the Reds couldn't help getting him to the Big League club in a hurry. Entering his second season with the team, the expectations are even higher in '09. Many people are drafting him as a 3rd outfielder this year but is it possible for him to finish '09 as a no. 1 outfielder? Minor Leagues

As with most young superstars, Jay Bruce didn’t spend much time in the Minors. Bruce did plenty of damage in his 299 games in the Minor Leagues. In ‘07, he split time between Single-A, Double-A, and Triple-A affiliates in which he combined for 26 HR and 89 RBI while hitting .320. The strikeouts were somewhat of a problem; in his 521 AB he struck out 135 times. This is understandable for a 19 year old.

In his brief time with Triple-A Louisville in ‘08, Bruce hit .364 with 10 HR and 37 RBI in 49 games. Again he had trouble with the swing and miss as he struck out 45 times, averaging almost a K/game. He walked only 12 times in those 49 games. He finished his last Minor League game with a .393 OBP which should be much higher for a player hitting over .360.
Rookie Season

We finally got our glimpse of the mythological creature known as Jay Bruce last year and he lived up to the hype right away. He hit .463 in his first 11 games and homered in four straight during that period. Bruce went through hot and cold streaks for the rest of the season but finished with above-average rookie numbers of .254 BA, 21 HR, and 52 RBI. Also his .453 SLG% was one of his rookie highlights.

His problems were obvious. He was strikeout prone in the Majors as well, with an alarming 26.6% K-rate. Bruce also struggled mightily against left-handed pitching. He hit an atrocious .190 against lefties, only mustering 26 hits in 137 AB. He was also a completely different hitter at home. Bruce hit .287 at the Great American Ballpark with 13 HR opposed to hitting just .221 on the road. He also hit way too many ground balls, finishing with a 45% ground ball rate. 34% of them were hit to the right side of the infield and his BA on those balls was .214 as opposed to a .281 BA on his ground balls to the left side. One could say he had one good month and after that he was below average.

Plate Mechanics

I’ve seen a lot of video on Bruce from his Minor League days and saw him a good deal at the Major League level last year as well. He does have somewhat of a long swing but for the most part it’s under control. Bruce’s problems last year came when he was trying to crush every pitch. He was swinging too hard, pulling his head off of the ball and not following it all the way in. His swing is so good that he barely has to put much behind it to send the ball over the fence. He is at his best when he is taking free and easy swings. That is when the ball jumps off his bat the most.

The high rate of ground balls to the right side of the infield is a direct result of him trying to crush every pitch. He got into bad habits of trying to pull everything and turning over on pitches, grounding them to the right side. Bruce also had a very high Infield FB rate of 13.5%. This was also a result of swinging too hard- pulling his head off of the ball and popping out to the infield.

Looking Ahead to ‘09

The raw ability that Bruce possesses alone warrants him as a no. 3 OF in ‘09. But being that he will only be 22 years old it’s inevitable that he will still get into those bad habits again in ‘09. He just needs to cut down on them. 22 year olds are going to swing hard and swing often. However, he can benefit most by swinging naturally and not pulling off of pitches.

It’s obvious that he needs to take more pitches as well. Showing more discipline at the plate and taking more walks could do wonders for his ‘09 numbers. He also has to show improvement against left-handed pitching. He will be even better against righties this year so if he can just get his BA against lefties somewhere around .240-.250 his overall BA should be well above most projections. Right now he stands as a no. 3 OF but is it that crazy to think he can finish as a no. 1 OF? It’s not that crazy at all. We are projecting Bruce to finish with a .272/27/90/85/7 line. Bill James is much more optimistic in his projections of .296/35/90/94/12. So which one is it? The no. 3 OF or the no. 1 OF? Either is quite possible but the truth lies somewhere in between.