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20 Jan 2009 |
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The rumors are running rampant, with Michael Young agreeing to play 3B for the Rangers this season, as to who the Rangers will use as the SS. Will they sign a veteran to fill the role? Will they use someone else on the roster? Will the team turn the job over to Elvis Andrus, a player considered to be one of the best infield prospects in all of baseball? He’s better known for his abilities in the field, despite a load of errors last season, so should fantasy owners be drooling over his potential to help or should they simply pass on the 20-year old (he turns 21 in August) if he is indeed given the job? There is no doubting his blazing speed, having stolen 54 bases last season at Double-A following a 2007 where he stole a total of 40 bases across two levels of Single-A. The problem is, his benefits for owners may stop right there. He has just 12 career HR in the minor leagues in 1,410 AB. It’s not like he’s piling up the doubles with the power being projected down the line. He has just 66 career two-baggers, so don’t look for that to come around any time soon, if ever. He batted just .295 last season, and that came with a BABIP of .357. With his speed it certainly is not out of the question that he can maintain a higher number there, as long as he can keep the ball on the ground. If he starts putting the ball in the air, he’s going to get himself into a lot of trouble. It would not be surprising to see him struggle, especially considering the jump he is asked to make. Don’t expect a .300 average, with .250-.260 a very realistic number. I’d love to say that he’s going to hit .280 or .290, but I can’t do it, not given the numbers he posted last season. Carlos Gomez and his .258 average with 33 SB seems like the perfect comparison. Andrus doesn’t walk an excessive amount (7.3% BB% last season), much like Gomez. He strikes out a bit more then you’d like for a player like him (18.9% K% last season), much like Gomez. He has little to no power, much like Gomez. I like Andrus' potential just as much as anyone, but 2009 is going to be a learning process, a chance for him to grow. I wouldn't recommend taking the gamble on him unless you are in need of speed because that's about all he's likely to offer.
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Comments (5)
  written by Pat DiCaprio, January 27, 2009
Johan, could not agree more. .295 at any level other than in the Cal League is a good performance. at AA it is fine. FWIW i took andrus with the last selection in the Experts 12-Team Mixed League at MDC
written by Johan, January 27, 2009
Anyone who think .295 is anything but a great average for a 19 year old to put up in AA is off their rockers.
Andrus has shown to be a very fast learner. Continued getting better as the season went on, then did the same in winter ball playing with guys much older than him. As far as the walks go, look at his winter league stats (25BB/179AB). His last 10 games he hit over .300 with 4 SB and 5BB to 7K... the guy adapts very quickly. No middle infielder is expected to hit for power when they are 20. Andrus is not a great option for this year, but he'll be very decent in 2010 and will go in the top three rounds in drafts after that point. He doesn't have to hit for power.. he'll hit .290+ with 40 + SB and 10 HR and that will be enough.
written by tonycincotta, January 20, 2009
Take him late or leave him for waiver wire ?
written by kevinorris, January 20, 2009
I have a few things to say about Andrus:
1) When he was with the Braves a couple of years ago I kept hearing that his ETA (Estimated time of Arrival) was 2010 at the earliest, likely 2011 because he was very youthful and head a lot to improve upon at the the plate. 2) One of the reasons he was drafted by the Braves, and the Rangers wanted him was because of his defense. Last year in just over 100 games he had 30+ errors. That doesn't seem like a solid defensive player to me. 3) I understand he has speed, but that's about it at this point in time. He has little to no power and hits for a moderate average. 4) I don't get into BABIP or any stats beyond the basic ones, but isn't it true that guys like B.J. Upton who have speed have higher BABIP because they can run out infield singles. Doesn't this mean that Andrus would be able to do the same, and his BABIP shouldn't really be taken into much effect. 5) Andrus hasn't been to AAA yet. Alex Gordon skipped that stage and it seemed to slow him down, and he has still yet to blossom into the player we once expected him to be. This could be a factor with Andrus as well if he takes over short stop.
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