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Every year I write a variation on this column. It is important for fantasy players to keep the fundamentals in mind and to favor hard evidence over soft. Stop giggling Rhett... In my prior life as a horse racing aficionado I came across one of the great writers on any gambling topic, James Quinn. In many ways horse racing handicapping and fantasy baseball analysis are very similar. We take a record of performance, adjust it for park or track, and try to divine the future. When doing so it is very easy to get distracted by losing focus on the fundamentals; the "hard" evidence. In his early writing Quinn distinguished between the fundamentals and the ancillary in handicapping; the "hard" and "soft" evidence. In horse racing the "hard" evidence includes the hard facts such as speed figures, pace analysis, track biases and trip handicapping. The "soft" evidence includes things like whether the jockey is hot, whether the horse likes the track and other similar factors. It is not that difficult to analogize these to baseball. The key fact in horse racing is that one should never ignore the hard evidence in favor of the soft; in the long run it guarantees failure. This is how the astute fantasy owner should begin his or her analysis. “Hard” evidence is statistical evidence and “soft” evidence is non-statistical evidence. These are my own definitions so don’t think that these are accepted definitions in the fantasy community. When it comes ot analysis I will not accept soft evidence without corroborating hard evidence. That is to say, when I read the hard evidence to suggest “X” I will not accept a conclusion of “not X” based solely on soft evidence. Again, this is not a generally accepted tenet in the fantasy world, but it is one I adhere to 99% of the time. Every season we see this sort of analysis and in the long run and in the majority of cases it fails. Here are a few examples from what I have read so far: 1. Michael Young--The current buzz as I write this is that he is upset about a potential move to third base. If it happens and he flops many will attribute his flop to the psychological factors and his unhappiness but rest assured that he is primed for further decline even if he stays at short. 2. Manny Ramirez--I have already heard the prediction on various shows that he will be worse in 2009 because he will undoubtedly be unhappy about his contract. We can only hope that this is believed on draft day. His skills and power are as good as ever and his reliability is an "A" according to Baseball HQ. Look for a 30-100-.300 season regardless of his contract. 3. Player X is in the best shape of his life. Haven't we seen enough of this old trope? Already we have seen this ancient saw written about Vlad Guerrero; despite a five year power decline. His shape aside, he is a good bet to make it a six decline, despite the fact that, according to Torii Hunter, he "feels like a kid again." You can forget about a return to 2004. 4. Player Y has something to prove. Don't believe it. He may have something to prove but it won't help the bat find the ball or the pitch to find the plate. 5. Player Z learned a new pitch or changed his batting stance. This one really slays me. Hitting is a neurological exercise for 99% of hitters, not a fully conscious one. The stance doesn't matter if the hard evidence says he cannot hit. You can essentially write 3-5 above in stone; it will happen this spring that some mediocre player will have some positive "soft" evidence. Ignore it. Trackback(0)
Comments (3)
  written by Patrick DiCaprio, January 13, 2009
I love the races and still do but family and other obligations get in the way. have to wait until my daughter is older so she can bet with me....
written by Kevin Orris, January 13, 2009
Pat- I don't get why you ever left horse racing. I mean, sure, all we got here in Chicagoland is Hawthorne and Arlington, but I'm a regular at the OTB.
written by big o, January 13, 2009
makes sense to me .
my favorite author , charles bukowski , often wrote of the track . published by City Lights Books , 1967 , his work entitled "Erections, Ejaculations , Exhibitions, and General Tales of Ordinary Madness" is an american literary classic. again , makes sense to me .
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