08 Feb 2010 |
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While Scott Boras works the phone lines from San Diego to Yokohama trying to find a paycheck for the Montgomery Burns-armed Johnny Damon, we will shift our attention to unearthing the guns and butter in the National League East. Atlanta Braves: The Braves take a hit with Javier Vasquez heading back to New York, leaving Tommy Hanson to pick up the slack in all his studliness. The bullpen has a new look with Soriano and Gonzalez being replaced by Boston’s Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito. It doesn’t look like the Braves will have enough to challenge the might of the Phillies just yet. Key additions: Billy Wagner, Takashi Saito, Melky Cabrera, Troy Glaus Key Losses: Javier Vasquez, Adam LaRoche, Rafael Soriano, Mike Gonzalez Gun: Martin Prado
Don’t forget Prado’s name when you are looking for a middle infielder late in your draft. He has a very solid contact rate and his power had a marked increase (HR/FB went up from 2.8 to 7.6%) last season. While his minor league numbers don’t reflect a power guy, at 26 years of age it will not be a huge surprise to see him hit 12-15 home runs while maintaining an average around the .300 mark. Butter: Chipper Jones
Larry has battled groin, oblique and back injuries of late and he is 38 years old. He has been a great hitter for Atlanta over the journey, and he could quite possibly still provide solid numbers in 2010 given that he did have some bad luck (BABIP of .291) last season. The problem is that the risk here is just too high for the price you will have to pay to draft him. Consider also that in his final 42 games of 2009, Jones hit a scary .173. Florida Marlins: The biggest news out of Florida was signing young gun Josh Johnson to a new four-year contract. Johnson heads a rotation with fellow “K” king Ricky Nolasco and the kids – Sean West and Rick VandenHurk. Can Hanley, Cameron Maybin and Chris Coghlan do enough with their bats and legs to keep Florida in the race in 2010? Key additions: Seth McClung, Derrick Turnbow
Key Losses: Jeremy Hermida, Dallas McPherson, Matt Lindstrom, Brendan Donnelly Gun: Cameron Maybin Maybin’s poor 2009 makes him a nice potential bargain in 2010. After showing plenty of good stuff in the minors, Maybin’s major league career got of to a rocky beginning. He hit .202 with 31 strikeouts in April and May before being demoted to Triple-A. What we need to remember is that Maybin is only 23, and when he did return to the bigs late in 2009 for some more seasoning, he managed to hit a much more palatable .293 with three home runs in September and October. Now that the pressure is off and the expectations are down, the time is right for this five-tool player to show us why he was a top prospect. Butter: Andrew Miller
Here’s the flipside of the Marlins' prospect stash. Miller has previously been interesting to many a fantasy player due to his strikeout potential. Unfortunately, potential is all that it has turned out to be. Miller so far has shown less control than Kanye West at a music awards show, and his strikeout rates have been way below what was expected. His fastball velocity is trending in the wrong direction, so there appears little hope that Miller can offer any fantasy value in 2010 and beyond Philadelphia Phillies:
Two straight World Series appearances for the Phillies were fuelled by a high-octane offense coupled with solid pitching. The addition of pitching thoroughbred Roy Halladay, combined with a potential comeback season from Cole Hamels, spells very bad news for the rest of the division. Key additions: Roy Halladay, Placido Polanco, Jose Contreras, Jason Castro Key Losses: Cliff Lee, Pedro Feliz, Brett Myers, Matt Stairs Gun: Carlos Ruiz
There aren’t too many secrets in the Phillies lineup these days, but a guy that can give you value is Ruiz. His numbers on the surface are not eye-popping, but he does have a contact rate of 88.7% and he knows how to take a walk. A low BABIP (.266 in 2009) also suggests that it wouldn’t take a lot for Ruiz to improve his average near the .300 mark. Add in the potential for 13-15 home runs and you have a very solid catcher on your hands that won’t break the bank. Butter: Raul Ibanez
34 home runs and 93 RBI are nice numbers to be sure, but Ibanez is poised to let fantasy owners down in 2010. Despite the big numbers, Ibanez struck out at a rate of a whopping 23.8% in 2009, his highest percentage ever in the majors. His contact rate was 74.8%, his lowest percentage ever. Raul is 37 years old. Raul was once a gun, but to me he screams “butter!” New York Mets:
Will Jason Bay save Omar Minaya’s job? Will Jose Reyes come back strong? Will David Wright remember how to hit home runs? Will Carlos Beltran’s personal doctor advise him that he is allergic to grass? Once again, the Mets are one big question mark. Key additions: Jason Bay, Kelvim Escobar Key Losses: J.J. Putz, Brian Schneider
Gun: Jonathon Niese Despite a torn hamstring that ended Niese’s 2009, he showed enough promise in five starts to win him the coveted title of “gun” for the Mets this season. In deep leagues he will give you plenty of value, as his minor league numbers suggest a potential for upside in strikeout rate to add to his already solid control. More than likely to be the Mets' fifth starter out of the gate, he could get you 8-10 sneaky wins with an ERA of just above 4.0 with a solid strikeout rate. Butter: Carlos Beltran
The recent news that Beltran had arthroscopic surgery on his knee makes it a very tough call on whether to draft him at all in 2010. Unless he drops dramatically down your draft board to a spot where you think the value is too great to pass up, leave him alone this season. The Mets' front office seems to have one disaster after another on its hands, so who knows what could be around the corner for Beltran. Right now, I would expect somewhere around 400-450 at bats only for him this season, reducing his output to under 20 home runs. Washington Nationals:
Better times are ahead for the Nationals with young phenom Stephen Strasburg on the way to joining stud third baseman Ryan Zimmerman and some up and coming talent including Ian Desmond and Justin Maxwell. A tough year still beckons for Washington, but the future is starting to look a little brighter. Key additions: Matt Capps, Brian Bruney, Jason Marquis, Ivan Rodriguez Perennially forgotten in drafts, Willingham should again represent good value in 2010. He can be counted on for 25 home runs, and has the potential to hit near 30. His average won’t kill you as it is likely to be around .265, and with his current ADP around 255 (about 80 picks after Jack Cust and his putrid .240 batting average), Willingham is late round money in the bank. Butter: Ian Desmond
Had I completed my column yesterday, Ian Desmond would have been my “gun.” With a starting job and the potential for 10 home runs and 20 steals, Desmond was a great late round flyer to fill your middle infield needs. The problem is, the Nationals have just signed Adam Kennedy to fill the second base position that apparently Cristian Guzman didn’t want to move to. That leaves Desmond out in the cold. Supercoach Jim Riggleman has suggested that he will find at-bats for Desmond in the outfield, but this sounds like lip service to me. That wraps up the preseason “Guns & Butter” pre-season sleepers and busts, make sure you read the whole series if you missed any! (Links at the bottom of this article) Need more stats, projections and premium information? Head over to the premium side for the most up to date and in-depth player analysis you will find anywhere. Great articles, rankings, dollar values and premium podcasts are just some of the tasty fantasy feast that is available at the link below! http://baseball.fantasypros911.com/
For now - thanks for reading, Boris is OUT!
AL Central: http://fantasypros911.com/guns-and-butter-american-league-central-sleepers-and-busts.html
NL Central: http://fantasypros911.com/guns-and-butter-national-league-central-pre-season-sleepers-and-busts.html
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Tags: Sleepers Busts Johnny Damon Javier Vasquez Billy Wagner Takashi Saito Melky Cabrera Troy Glaus Adam LaRoche Rafael Soriano Mike Gonzalez Martin Prado Chipper Jones Josh Johnson Ricky Nolasco Sean West Cameron Maybin Chris Coghlan Seth McLung Derrick Turnbow Jeremy Hermida Dallas McPherson Matt Lindstrom Brendan Donnelly Andrew Miller Roy Halladay Placido Polanco Jose Contreras Jason Castro Cliff Lee Pedro Feliz Brett Myers Matt Stairs Carlos Ruiz Raul Ibanez Jason Bay Jose Reyes David Wright J.J. Putz Brian Schneider Jonathon Niese Matt Capps Brian Bruney Jason Marquis Ivan Rodriguez Austin Kearns Josh Bard Josh Willingham Ian Desmond Christian Guzman
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Florida Marlins: 
