First, some of you may have been wondering, "Where the hellz that scumbag Greco been?" – for those that don’t give a damn, I’m going to tell you anyway.  As we continue to grow the FP911.com brand, I’ve taken on a more active role in handling the business, which has limited my time chatting with some of you. But, every once and while I’m going to throw my thoughts together so you can have an honest, non-biased opinion on what I see going on around fantasy baseball. Before I begin, let me put your minds at ease.  These rants are not targeted at anyone, period.  It’s just things I’ve seen this season that have kinda got under my skin or things that I thought, “holy crap, great idea.”  So there’s my disclaimer.

First topic : If I have to read another strategy that tells people to focus on SB to win this year I’m going to shoot myself.

Ok, we get it, SB are up. In 2009, SB reached their highest peak since 2001 with 2,970.  That’s a 6.1% increase from the previous year, whoopie do! If you selected Jose Reyes last year or even B.J. Upton, you know exactly what I’m talking about – you were a l-eh-oo-oo-s-e-r. Listen, SB can be had at any point in the draft this year, but since when has it become the sexy thing to do? Stay focused on what we say here at the 911 and don’t be wooed in the early rounds.

Second topic : Guess what homey, HR were up last year.

Yeah, that’s right princesses, they were.  Last year teams combined to hit 5,042 dingers – Yes Sooze I said dingers, settle down – , the most in the post Mitchell-Report ERA. I’m a little guilty here too when it came to thinking HR were scarce.

Example : 25 Players hit between 30-39 HR's in 2009

I had my first mock draft back in December with some “Experts” over at “The Central” –MockDraft Central for those that didn’t get the lingo–, it sure seemed like HR were hard to come by, but the more I look at the draft the more I figured, I probably shouldn’t have drank so much.  Homers are there folks, you just have to look at the numbers.

Great segue, Paul. After looking closer at the numbers, no, not naked in the bed with them like Patrick, Mike, or Chuck, but close enough to discuss them with you, you’ll see that there were 85 players who hit 20+ HR last season.  If you miss out on a big-bopper in the first round, or hell even in the second round, don’t sweat it, you can snag one-or-three in the next several rounds.

Third topic : This year’s Jason Marquis.

Many of you may have remembered last year, on Talking Baseball Live – shameless plug –, I predicted that Jason Marquis would win between 12-15 games. Now I’m not saying I’m as ballsy as the boys over at the Roundtable—you’re welcome Patrick—, with their “Are you crazy segment,” but I like to throw a few predictions out their each year; but only after I’ve done my homework, spoke to scouts, front office people, and agents. So here is my version of the 2010 Jason Marquis, drum roll please : New York Mets’ starting pitcher, Oliver Perez.  I’m predicting Perez will win 12-15 games in 2010. 

Why?  Well for one, after speaking to several Mets’ front office people, Perez is in the best shape he’s been since joining the Mets.  Two, Scott Boras sent Perez to the Athletes Performance Institute in Arizona to ensure he is healthy to start the season. Finally, Perez has shown flashes of brilliance over his career, and with all the positive signs leaning his way this off-season, Perez, in my opinion will finally become the pitcher the Mets paid for last year.

I know, I know, there is no brilliant sabermeteric statistic to support my pick, but that’s what makes FP911.com great. You have sabremetrics guys to smack you in the face with stats and then you have guys like Lenny and I that provide information from within the organizations, scouts, and agents. It’s a win-win situation. Go ahead, blast me in the comments, I can take it, but if your account just happens to disappear, I'll blame it on the gremlins.

Final topic : The one player who will be selected outside the first round that will finish with first round value.

B.J. Upton is finally 100% healthy.  Last year, while battling shoulder issues, he struggled to hit .241 with 11 homers. This year, Upton hits 20+ homers, steals 60+ bases, and raises his batting average over .280.  You’ll be able to snag him up later in the second round, but when the season’s over he’ll have top 10 value.  Let’s just say a little birdie told me so, wink, wink.

TrackBack URI for this entry

Comments (6)

Subscribe to this comment's feed

...
written by rcarver, February 11, 2010

The guy nobody's talking about to win 12-15 games? How about Brad Penny?
The guy with first round value found outside the first round? Grady Sizemore or Carlos Beltran
I found myself chasing homers in an e-mail draft after selecting sb/r/avg guys in the first 3 rounds. It seems as if the 20-25 hr guys are available still in the 10th round and later. And SB guys are available late also, see Juan Pierre, forgotten by most after a bench year in LA.

• 
• +0
• 
• 

...
written by Brian -, February 09, 2010

Hey this was great. Love it when you guys show exactly who you are. You guys are down to earth and aren't afraid to let your hair down unlike some other stiffs. Thatnks for keepin it real

• 
• +0
• 
• 

...
written by Chuck Anderson, February 09, 2010

My favorite numbers to be naked with are 36, 24, and 36

• 
• +0
• 
• 

...
written by Kev, February 09, 2010

This was great. I agree with CB here, I like the going out on a limb too. Overall very interesting article Paul. This is the main reason I come to fantasypros911, you guys really do cover it all. Thanks for all the hard work.

Kev

• 
• +0
• 
• 

...
written by CB, February 09, 2010

I'm not a princess! But seriously, nice article, and I like you going out on a limb and not leaning on sabermetric crutches or citing is FOAJNAMALAJWKEJ was above league average or something like that. All in all, a good article, and I'll make sure to direct all my leaguemates at you when they laugh at me for taking good 'ol Ollie Perez with my last pick.

• 
• +1
• 
• 

...
written by Bryce Keller, February 09, 2010

Hey good to see you back Paul. Thought this was pretty enteraining man. Keep up the great work and look forward to more of your stuff.

Bryce

• 
• +1
• 
• 

Name

Website

Title

Comment

smaller | bigger

Subscribe via email (registered users only)

I have read and agree to the Terms of Usage.

Add Comment Preview