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Two week ago, I looked at the 10 pitchers who increased their swinging strike percentage the most compared with last year, while seeing what effect it has had on their strikeout rates. Today I want to look at the bottom 10 pitchers, those who have seen the biggest drop-offs in their swinging strike percentage. A fall in this metric without a corresponding decline in the pitcher's strikeout rate could mean the dive is coming in the second half, so owners should take note.
Derek Lowe- Lowe has had a disappointing season so far and it would be even worse if he had not benefited from an unsustainably low 5.5% HR/FB ratio. This strikeout rate actually wouldn't really look out of place if it were not for the spike he enjoyed over his last two seasons. It is difficult to find an explanation behind the poor numbers, so owners should probably just sit tight and hope for the best. I probably would not buy low here though because he is legitimately pitching worse than his last several seasons. CC Sabathia- Shockingly, the huge drop in Sabathia's strikeout rate has not gotten any press. He had problems with his biceps muscle in late June, and I truly wonder if there is something bigger going on there. His K/9 hasn't been this low since 2004, though his fastball velocity is actually up this year. What is strange is his SwStr% actually ranks 11th in baseball, so that mediocre K/9 does not seem to match up. Maybe this means that his strikeout rate is due to rise as a 10.8% swinging strike rate is still very, very good. Vicente Padilla- He has been battling shoulder problems recently and that could very well be the culprit here. However, just like Sabathia, his velocity has been fine, which is a surprise given that shoulder issues usually lead to decreased velocity. I doubt anyone actually starts him, even in an AL-Only league, and it should remain that way. Johnny Cueto- His recent pair of bad outings was just regression to the mean as his strikeout rate is well down from last year and there was no way he was going to maintain a sub-3.00 ERA for much longer. It is possible that Cueto is going to need to start throwing his change-up more often as he is basically just a two-pitch pitcher right now, with his fastball-slider combination. The chance to sell high is quickly fading, but I would continue to try before his ERA jumps above 4.00. Bronson Arroyo- Arroyo has the privilege of being the pitcher with the largest K/9 drop from 2008 on this list. It was recently noted that Arroyo might have surgery on his right wrist to relieve his carpal tunnel syndrome. He says he doesn't have any numbness when he pitches, but then added that it never feels 100 percent. There is a good chance that the carpal tunnel is affecting his performance and we therefore cannot expect any sort of rebound if so. Randy Wolf- Wolf has posted his best ERA since 2002, despite a drop in his strikeout rate of a full batter per nine innings, and a large drop in SwStr%. His history supports this K/9 level as being sustainable, as he has posted K/9 rates around the 7.0 mark or lower in four previous seasons. As a result, I would not necessarily expect his K/9 to rebound and his ERA is definitely headed upward. John Lannan- Lannan's SwStr% and 4.0 K/9 are embarrassingly low and his only saving grace keeping him in the majors is a 50%+ ground ball rate. His pitch selection and velocity are almost identical to last year, but he's just not getting the same results his second full year through the league. His minor league strikeout rate track record is underwhelming, so a sub-5.0 K/9 in the second half is likely again. A.J. Burnett- Burnett is not pitching nearly as well as his 3.77 ERA would indicate. His K/9 and SwStk% are way down, walk rate up and even his once excellent ground ball rate has dropped to just average territory. In the past, he was someone I would always be willing to try to buy low, ignoring the peripherals because he always seemed to eventually get to the rates you expected. However, there are more warning signs this year than in the past, so I wonder what has happened to him. Obviously there is no buy low opportunity here with a 3.77 ERA, but this means owners might consider trying to sell him. Tim Wakefield- Just because he misguidedly made the All-Star team (reason # 393,957 why the All-Star game has become a joke) does not mean he should be in any fantasy team's starting lineup! Only a 4.9% HR/FB ratio is saving him from an ERA closing in on 5.00. Jeremy Guthrie- Jeremy Guthrie, meet regression. Sure, his skills have declined this year, but not so much that would correspond to a 1.8 point increase in his ERA. The answer is that his run of great luck has finally come to an end. His skills have always been unimpressive and this year they are even worse. He is not worth buying low, even in AL-Only leagues. Tim Lincecum- I added an 11th pitcher to this list just because of who it was. I have discussed Lincecum's velocity loss (94.1 MPH in 2008, down to 92.6 in 2009) in other articles on the Premium side, and it continues to amaze me that his velocity is down 1.5 MPH, while he has generated fewer swinging strikes, and yet his K/9 has remained the same and he is pitching better than ever. In the pre-season, everyone was talking about the Verducci Effect and how Lincecum would perform this year or if he would even hold up given the number of innings he has been asked to throw last season. The drop in velocity and swinging strike percentage certainly provide some evidence that maybe he is showing some ill effect from all the innings, but his surface results sure aren't supporting that. He is on pace for 237.2 innings and it would not surprise me in the least if he tires down the stretch and has a less than stellar September. This is something even more important to keep in mind for H2H leaguers. Trackback(0)
Comments (2)
  written by Brian J, July 15, 2009
To me the interesting one is Derek Lowe, for a number of reasons. He is one of the pitchers that FIP and xFIP strongly disagree upon and it will be interesting to see what happens to the HR rate in the second half.
It also re-opens up the Oliver Perez-Derek Lowe comparison that the Mets and to a lesser extent the Braves grappled with in the off-season. The Mets offered Lowe 3 yrs $36 million, which is the contract that Perez took. The Braves got Lowe for 4/$60. In May that looked like a slam dunk win for the Braves but I think in July it is reasonable to wonder which team will benefit more in the long run.
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Tags: pitchers sabermetrics strikeout rate swinging strike percentage Derek Lowe CC Sabathia Vicente Padilla Johnny Cueto Bronson Arroyo Randy Wolf John Lannan A.J. Burnett Tim Wakefield Jeremy Guthrie Tim Lincecum
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Well on the contract side, I don't think Oliver could ever possibily justify it. A fly ball pitcher with terrible control is just a bad combination. I'm real curious to see if Lowe could rebound or if he has started a rapid decline. They both may end up being bad contracts.