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StatCorner.com has a ton of cool statistics to analyze, including the much discussed tRA and its regressed version, tRA*. Besides these ERA estimators, the site also calculates a pitcher's swinging strike percentage, or the percentage of pitches the pitcher throws that result in a batter swinging and missing. It stands to reason that this metric correlates quite highly with a pitcher's strikeout rate. However, if the two do not match, such as an increase in swinging strike percentage not leading to a corresponding jump in strikeout rate, or vice versa, we might conclude that a change in strikeout rate might be in this pitcher's future. Let's take a look at the top 10 pitchers who have increased their swinging strike percentage the most this season compared with 2008 and see if we could learn anything.
Justin Verlander- His average fastball velocity has jumped to its highest level in a full season, hitting 95.5 miles per hour and he is throwing it about four percentage points more often than last year. This is likely the primary driver of his huge strikeout rate spike. Though it is difficult to envision that he sustains a 10.0+ K/9, his stuff has clearly improved to the point that this is no fluke and his SwStr% jump confirms that. Felix Hernandez- His velocity and pitch selection are nearly identical to last year, but if I am reading his PitchF/X chart correctly, it appears that he is getting some extra movement on his fastball and curve ball, which could be what is fueling this spike. It looks like Felix might finally be having that big breakout we have been waiting for, though I would be even more excited if his ground ball rate rebounded to the 60% range it had sat at from 2005-2007, but that is just nitpicking. Edwin Jackson- I have not been a believer in Jackson's so-called breakout all season. Sure, he has improved his skills, but they are still closer to the profile of a 4.00 ERA pitcher than a 3.00. However, Jackson ranks sixth in baseball in SwStr%, yet only 41st in K/9. If we believe that SwStr% is a good predictor of K/9, then this would seem to suggest Jackson has some pretty big strikeout rate upside. If that does happen, I would certainly reconsider my opinion of him, but until it does, he is a prime sell-high candidate. Jon Lester- Lester was a pre-season bust candidate based on his ERA outperforming his skills last year. This year though, Lester has held his ground ball rate gains and control improvement, while his K/9 has skyrocketed. His average fastball velocity is up more than one mile per hour, while he has added some movement to that pitch, as well as his curve ball and change-up. Like Verlander above, it is hard to imagine Lester could maintain a K/9 this high all season, but his stuff has definitely improved greatly and I have become a fan. Javier Vazquez- Never underestimate the impact on a pitcher's performance after moving from the American League to the National League! He is throwing more curve balls and change-ups this year, which according to FanGraphs' pitch values, have been ridiculously effective for him this season. He has also getting some additional drop from his curve, which has no doubt made it so lethal this year. Vazquez ranks second in all of baseball in SwStr%, behind Rich Harden. Mike Hampton- His K/9 is at the highest rate since 2000, and he is doing it by throwing even more cutters and fewer change-ups. His SwStr% is pretty much average, I think (I can't seem to find the league average SwStr% on the site), so I can't imagine too much upside in that strikeout rate. It does confirm however that he is at his healthiest in years, though fantasy owners probably shouldn't care. Gavin Floyd- No matter what kind of list I create, the poster boy for the saber-nerds vs. scouts debates always shows his face. He is throwing his fastball slightly less, in favor of his change-up, and his pitch value chart would agree this is a good idea given how much more effective the change-up has been for him. The biggest improvement is in his curve ball, which has been worth more than two runs more this year than last. Floyd was always known for his curve ball, but it had never led to impressive strikeout rates. However, he has gotten more downward and horizontal movement on the pitch this year, so it looks like it actually become a much better pitch and the driving force behind the increased SwStrk%. He may have some additional upside in his K/9. Jarrod Washburn- Washburn's K/9 is almost identical to the highest mark he had set back in 2002. His average fastball velocity has rebounded back to pre-2007 levels after it had slipped for two straight years and he has added horizontal and vertical movement to several of his pitches. He also began throwing a two-seam fastball this year, which he has thrown 7.4% of the time, according to PitchF/X data. His SwStrk% is still below league average, so there is almost certainly no upside in his K/9, but it does appear something close to his current level is sustainable the rest of the year. I still wouldn't be very confident in him in a fantasy league, as even with a low 7.3% HR/FB ratio, his FIP is still 3.77, which is more than 50 points higher than his actual ERA. Dan Haren- Haren may be the first pitcher on this list that truly looks to have some real strong K/9 upside. His SwStrk% is up 16%, yet his K/9 has barely budged. His ERA is already a sparkling 2.25, so even his he does bump up his K/9, his ERA will still likely rise as his BABIP and LOB% regress. If the Haren owner in your league believes that he will continue his trend of collapsing in the second half, by all means pounce, as first half/second half trends are largely just small sample size noise. Zach Duke- It is hard to believe that a pitcher without extreme ground ball tendencies could post a K/9 of just 4.3, yet have a 3.13 ERA. The jump in SwStk% is nice and suggests maybe he could get that strikeout rate into the 5.0 range, but he hasn't been higher than 4.9 since his rookie year in 2005 when he posted a 6.2 rate. He is one of the better sell-high candidates as his skills are nearly identical to last year when he posted a 4.82 ERA. So with the exception of the bottom two names on the list in Haren and Duke, every other pitcher experienced a sizeable jump in K/9 to go along with the spike in SwStrk%. The metric is really intriguing and there are numerous things we could do with it. Hopefully you will see some more about the stat from me in the coming weeks.
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Comments (4)
  written by hangbags, December 17, 2009
Welldone!do you like replica hangbags or replica watches
written by replica hangbags/watches, December 16, 2009
...
written by Mike Podhorzer , July 15, 2009
Cool, i had no idea BRef had this. Seeing it by month is awesome and could give us some nice trend info.
written by Brian J, July 15, 2009
FWIW - You can also access Swinging Strike totals at BB-Ref. It's not on their main page but if you go to the individual pitcher's game log you can see raw totals. Then if you sum games on the page, you can get percentages.
For instance, Johan Santana had a 15% Swinging Strike (they abbreviate it StS) in April but only a 9% mark in June. Overall this season he has a 12% StS.
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