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07 Jan 2009 |
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Tweet me!FANTASYPROS911.COM SLOW MOCK DRAFT (The Final Chapter) And now, the end is near;
My Way Frank Sinatra No this is not the Lenny Melnick theme song, although you can make a case that it could be. This signifies the end of the FIRST EVER baseball mock draft at FantasyPros911! The draft started in November and stayed consistent throughout with some few minor exceptions. The participants stayed active, lots of chatter, and plenty of articles on many websites. Tony Cincotta should be commended for putting together a first rate inaugural draft. Hey baby, I’m fired up! Wait, that’s Tony’s line. As I look back on the draft here are some observations about players and strategies.
A. Mike Cameron (22) B. Elijah Dukes (18) C. Eric Brynes (20) D. Delmon Young (19) E. Carlos Gomez (16) F. Adam Jones (15)
It was a great time and I look forward to drafting for the real show as time gets closer. With that being said, the best way to prepare for 2009 is hit the mock draft circuit and read FantasyPros911. What are your thoughts on when these players will go in your draft?
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Comments (22)
  written by RhettOldham, January 10, 2009
Tom,
Thanks for listening...Tony and I are having a great time and with the best intereactive chatrroom at blogtalkradio it just keeps getting better.
written by tonycincotta, January 10, 2009
We have alot of fun and it makes things enjoyable ! Thanks for listening.
written by LA Tom, January 10, 2009
Rhett, Great Job. Also you shows have been awesome! You and Tony keep getting better and better!
Happy 2009, Tom from LA
written by Shai, January 08, 2009
Rhett,
This was an amazing summary of the draft.Also, the comments from all these great minds is by itself, well worth the price of admission. I am in the middle of a 20 team slow draft. About 3 weeks ago, I was able to snag Nelson Cruz in the 12th round, which was pick # 229. That means that in a standard 12 team league, this would equate to round 19!! In the same draft,the two other "bargains" I believe I garnered was Carlos Lee and David Ortiz, whom I took with picks #69 and 91, respectively.That translates to late 5th and mid 7th rounds in a 12 team league.I think the reason for this is based upon their 2008 injuries, which are irrationally putting fear in the average fantasy player.
written by lennymelnick, January 08, 2009
In response to Brian's asking "does Lenny feel the same way",I will do an article explaining my theory on drafting or NOT drafting closers.Article will be posted Saturday Thank you all!!
Let the controversy begin!
written by Stinkinbadgez, January 08, 2009
My 25th year of fantasy baseball. Nothing has changed the game more than mock draft rooms. I find I rely more on drafts in Dec and Jan than the later months. You get the knowledge of the hardcore. Although I cannot believe the way people are falling all over themselves over unproven players. How many of these cant misses have REALLY paid off in their 1st year? One thing we learn from history....
written by RhettOldham, January 07, 2009
Thanks all for commenting:
1. Mike, I am not drafting Utley...I believe he will not steal in 2009, tons of uncertainity that I can avoid. 2. Yogi, great point about closers. My own personal theory is called "Aces and Spaces" an old Spades card game term. I want a top notch closer to anchor the pen and then I will take a risk on a second or third guy later. 3. Chuck, I think you raise a great point about the value of closers in a H2H league. I rarely play in a H2H so I am not as familar but considering that saves would be magnified more would make it interesting. With that being said remember this, a good closer gets 30-35 saves a season. In a 26 week season that is only 1.34 saves a week...pretty small margin. 4. Troy, that was an AWESOME stat comparing the closers. I would not continue to use the Brian Wilson-Papelbon comparision since Yogi is correct about that comparision being far fetched to predict before the season. But consider if you could Francisco Cordero in the 12th or Kerry Wood in the 15th and Papelbon is being taken in the 4th or 5th. Not much difference.
written by MichaelMuschiano, January 07, 2009
I still like Utley earlier than round 3. Even if he isn't ready for Opening Day, I still consider him above any of the other second baseman because of his elite power. Despite not using it as an excuse, clearly his hip was bothering him down the stretch last season. Maybe not to a point where he had to shut it down, but possibly developing bad habits at the plate. I think a healthy Utley can hit 40 and knock in 110, which would make him more valuable than anyone else at the position.
written by JoeLano, January 07, 2009
WOW Yogi, A "Billy Shakesphere" quote! The hell with everything else you wrote, I am impressed!
written by Yogi, January 07, 2009
whatever strategy you have more comfort. If you, in March trust your ability to differentiate between C.J. Wilson and Brian Wilson, then by all means wait. If you don't want to roll the dice or devote time to trying to determine which guy emerges from the "committee" then don't shy away from taking a closer you believe will last the year. My two cents
written by Yogi, January 07, 2009
As Billy Shakesphere once said; this is "Much ado about nothing". It has always amused me that this subject is given so much attention and debated with the fervor that it is every year. If you choose to draft a stud closer early you are not damned to a 6th place or lower finish, If you choose to wait until the end, you are not guaranteed, or even given a significantly higher chance of finishing in the money. Troy, I love your work, but I tire of the "Brian Wilson type" arguement. At the end of the year, it is an easy call. But during the draft, I'd be interested in what the confidence factor would be for such an arguement. For every Brian Wilson/Jonathon Papelbon comparison, I can come up with a Cliff Lee/Eric Bedard scenario. I believe that skillful in-season management including prudent use of your FAAB budget or waiver wire priority makes where you took (within reason) your top closer a mute point. Go with whichever strategy you are most comfortable. If in March, you are convinced that you can project the difference between C.J. Wilson and Brian Wilson, by all means wait. If you just as soon not "roll" the dice, or spend time trying to determine which guy emerges from the "committee" then don't shy away from grabbing a closer you have the most faith in lasting the year. My two cents.
written by Brian Joura, January 07, 2009
But it's also the difference in wins, strikeouts and WHIP
written by This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it , January 07, 2009
Hey Sugar, I'll draft a closer early if it means getting a personal visit from Lenny...
written by SeanAgranov, January 07, 2009
Listen to lenny's podcast daily (shameless plug but i really think its easily worth the premium side price)! He explains this viewpoint very well.
The closer late strategy definitely is for 5x5 roto leagues not H2H leagues.
written by ChuckAnderson, January 07, 2009
Just something I'll throw out there. Would drafting closers for ERA/WHIP make more sense in a H2H league considering their impact on the categories will be more significant over each seven day period?
written by RhettOldham, January 07, 2009
Brian, the closer debate never seems to get resolved but it is an interesting one. Great point Troy on overall ERA.
My take: Closers are one trick ponies, they give you saves. Occasionally you will get a stud closer who can give you 100Ks but drafting closers for ERA and WHIP does not seem to be prudent. On your point Brian, I do think you are correct in wanting to get a solid top tier closer for peace of mind but at what cost. A 5th round Papelbon selection takes you out of awfully good starter if you are still in the pitching mode, I took Brandon Webb in that round or a position player that can give you good average and overall good numbers. No correct answer here unless you talk to Lenny!
written by TroyPatterson, January 07, 2009
Starting pitchers are a different beast. You can still get good value late, but a Closer only helps in saves. No matter how good his K's and ERA/WHIP are they only help a tiny bit.
I did a comparison, on rotosavants.com, between Papelbon and Brian Wilson from last year since they had the same number of saves and the difference was about 0.10 in ERA for a team with 1250 IP. That isn't enough to make him worth up to 8-10 rounds earlier than a Brian Wilson. While the difference between a top pitcher (Tim Lincecum) and a 13th round pitcher is much more than 0.10 ERA.
written by Brian Joura, January 07, 2009
spending a high draft pick on someone like Bedard or Beckett or Verlander or Harang or Felix Hernandez, who were all on the Top 10.
written by Brian Joura, January 07, 2009
I enjoyed the slow mock, although I could never do it in real life - much too frustrating. I get upset with the pace of live drafts - I can't imagine one that stretched over months!
As for Point #3 I entered "2008 fantasy relievers" into Google and the first entry to come up was from MLB.com. I used their top 10 fantasy relievers and 7 of those 10 made it through the year (Putz, Wagner and Saito didn't). Assuming that the 11 of 30 is right, that means that only 4 of the remaining 20 closers made it through the year. Doesn't that mean you're better off going for one of the elite guys? 70% odds of getting an elite guy for a full healthy year seems better than 20% odds of getting a mediocre or worse guy for the full year. Does Lenny feel the same way about starting pitchers? Because using that top 10 list from MLB.com (which I acknowledge is not the best one available) you could have ended up spending a high draft pick on disappointments like Bedard or Beckett or Verlander or Felix Hernandez from the top 10.
written by Troy Patterson, January 07, 2009
I took Utley in the 2nd round of the Battleofthefantasygods.com league draft on Monday. I couldn't turn down a right side of the infield of Pujols and Utley. He has stated that he expects to be ready opening day which is good.
I don't have a set round to start drafting closers, but going in the first couple runs on closers is a horrible idea.
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With my 2nd pick, I took Beltran, and Vladdy in the 4th. I very rarely draft 3 OF at the beginning of a draft, but the value was staring me in the face.
The only downside is I am weak at 1B,(Carlos Guillen, Nick Swisher backing up)and RP, where my 1st 2 RP are Wheeler and S.Shields.