FREE Fantasy Baseball Guide

Sign up for the

FantasyPros911

Newsletter Today


For Email Marketing you can trust

Follow FantasyPros911 Here

FaceBook MySpace Twitter YouTube All Articles RSS Feed

Other Articles You Might Like

Bookmark and Share
04
Aug
2009
Fantasy Football's Second-Year TEs Analysis PDF  | Print |  E-mail
Fantasy Football Blog
Written by Andrew Garda   
The second year of any player in the NFL is hard to gauge. Even studs in a surefire position of value to Fantasy Owners – like Running Back – often have owners fearful of a second-year dip. If a position like Running Back or Quarterback is tough to judge, then Tight End might be darn near impossible, right? Well like so many things, perhaps not as much as you might believe.
 
This is not to say that a second-year Tight End is a lock for Fantasy-worthy productivity, but there are several players worthy of note who can produce very well for your team, even if their name isn’t Jason Witten, Tony Gonzalez or Antonio Gates.

Let’s take a glance at some of the 2008 Rookie Tight End class and see what they have to offer.

Good Bets
Two players leap to mind when you think of second-year Tight Ends: Dustin Keller of the New York Jets and John Carlson of the Seattle Seahawks.

altKeller (78 TGT- 48 REC- 535 YDS- 3 TD) splashed onto the Fantasy scene with a solid performance in Week Three against the San Diego Chargers. However, his four catches for 41 yards and a touchdown weren’t the only really interesting stats in the game for Keller.

It was the eight targets that a still adjusting Brett Favre lavished upon him. WR Jerricho Cotchery was targeted 12 times, but Laveranues Coles was only looked to for seven.

Keller had some very good games, but also some duds, and he was inconsistent for much of the season. You never knew if he would have a huge game - like the 107 yards and one touchdown performance in Week Ten – or a dud – like the week before against Buffalo where he managed just a pair of catches and 19 yards.

It didn’t help that he ended up in then Coach Eric Mangini’s doghouse. Of course, a new coach (Rex Ryan), a new Quarterback and a new scheme may correct that inconsistency.

Whether Kellen Clemens or rookie Mark Sanchez is throwing the ball, the Jets will have a signal caller with little experience. Traditionally, inexperienced Quarterbacks check down to their Tight Ends. As a result, the overall attempts might go down with either of the unproven players but that shouldn’t affect Keller.

On the other hand, Ryan is installing a run-focused offense that will utilize shorter passes to keep the defense honest and off the line of scrimmage. That will benefit Keller, as he will probably get a bunch of those looks.  If you wait a bit to draft a Tight End, Keller will be there in many formats and could be a nice upside pick to fill that position.

altCarlson (80 TGT- 55 REC- 627 YDS- 5 TD) is another player who made some Fantasy Owners happy in his rookie season. Mostly a waiver wire pick up, Carlson paid off, tying Bobby Engram for the team lead in receptions with 80.

Mind you, this was a team that found itself decimated with Wide Receiver injuries in 2008. In fact, the entire Seahawks roster was riddled with "historic" injuries. Still, QB Matt Hasselbeck seemed to trust Carlson.

But like Keller, Carlson’s overall numbers were nearly an illusion, as he often put up meager fantasy points for the majority of the season. When Carlson shined was when many Owners were approaching their Fantasy Playoffs.

From Week 13 to 15, Carlson averaged 10 points and cracked 100 yards in week 13. He added a touchdown in Week 14 against New England.

Carlson was much more average in week 15, though still serviceable thanks to a touchdown. His overall value during the Fantasy Playoffs was huge, though, and if you wanted to play him - or had to - you found yourself a solid player who didn't let you down when it counted.

The addition of WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh will cut into his receptions, but with Engram gone to Kansas City, it won’t hurt too much. There just aren’t that many players in the receiving corps to do much more than Carlson does. Deion Branch can’t stay healthy and Nate Burleson never seems to be able to repeat his 2004 1-000 yard season from his Vikings days. 

Room For Improvement
Several players came into the league with high hopes and were limited in part because of who they played behind. Two such Tight Ends were the Dallas Cowboys’ Martellus Bennett (27 TGT- 20 REC- 283 YDS- 4 TD) and Washington Redskins’ Fred Davis (10 TGT- 3 REC- 27 YDS- 0 TD).

Bennett made the most of his chances behind uber-stud Witten, compiling four touchdowns in 2008. Still it’s hard to project much from a Tight End whose value comes in mostly if the guy ahead of him gets hurt.

Aside from the Witten-problem, Bennett is notoriously immature. If he lets his off-the-field actions leak into his on-the-field play, it would be a huge problem.

Still, with WR Terrell Owens gone, there are precious few consistent options. If WR Roy Williams once again fails to put up good numbers as a No. 1 Wide Receiver, if Miles Austin cannot take his game to the next level and if Patrick Crayton continues to get stuck at the 50-catch, 700-yard ceiling – there is room for Bennett to produce on occasion, as the Cowboys might need to roll out some two-TE sets.

That is a lot of "ifs." Likely just a waiver wire addition, Bennett is someone to watch as the season progresses. If his targets begin to creep up, he may be a player you could grab before he breaks out and puts together a nice TE2 season.

Davis is stuck behind a very good Tight End as well, in this case Chris Cooley. The second round pick out of the University of Southern California is another guy with supposed attitude and work ethic issues but has the athleticism and ability to put up very good numbers.

Like Dallas, none of the Redskins' Wide Receivers has stood out consistently. In order to take the pressure off RB Clinton Portis and QB Jason Campbell, the Redskins need to move the chains through the air. Davis could be a factor in that capacity.

One last guy worth looking at as you pick through the later rounds and waiver wire in your Fantasy Leagues is Green Bay TE Jermichael Finley. (12 TGT- 6 REC- 74 YDS- 1 TD) Unlike Bennett and Davis, it isn’t a stud Tight End holding Finley back. He has had some maturity issues, but word is that he has overcome that.

There’s no use going over his stats from last year as they are almost non-existent. However news out of Packers’ camp is that Finley has looked very good and has closed the gap between himself and incumbent starter Donald Lee.

Lee really only had one briefly exciting season when Favre was last in town during the 2007 campaign. While he is steady, Finley is far more athletic and has more big play ability, as evidenced with a few big catches in Weeks 16 and 17 last season.

The Packers don’t target TEs all that much to begin with and certainly didn’t seem to desire any change in that aspect of the game to go along with their new Quarterback, Aaron Rodgers.

Finely has the ability to make them rethink that. While he may not gather in as many balls as the aforementioned Keller or Carlson, much less folks on his own team like WR Greg Jennings, he may prove himself to be a reliable red zone target,  which would make him worth having in a Tight End by Committee. This is pure speculation on my part, but at the end of a draft thinking about what could happen can yield extra value.

It is very hard to assess the Tight End position, and young Tight Ends can be even more difficult to project. Even though that may be the case, a watchful eye and a careful list could yield some very good Fantasy points.

While other owners leap early at the Big Three, you can sit back, draft value and grab a Tight End later who could still produce numbers worth having in your lineup. That same carefully crafted list could also serve to alert you to value weeks before your fellow Owners are even aware anything is going on. 

Trackback(0)
Comments (2)Add Comment
Zach Miller!
written by Andrew Garda, August 07, 2009
So there are two Zach Millers to talk about but I'm assuming you mean the third year TE out of OAK.

Zach Miller, Raiders TE stud is a guy I loved last year who was a bit too inconsistent. His biggest problem isn't talent - he's got that in spades. His biggest issue(s) are his QB and his Oline. The Raidrs had the 9th most sacks in the league last year - if Miller hadn't spent a bunch of time blocking, it'd have been worst. Some of those are on Jamarcus Russell though and I'll get to him shortly. The offensive line is undergoing changes though (again) so we'll see if it gets better - I am hopeful it will. Also fillign me with hope is the wide receiver corp. If they can attract some of the attention from Miller (who Russell locked on early last year) then he coudl be open more.

Russell is the key though and he has to make this season count. Its virtually a make or break year for him. He played well at the tail end of the season so hopefully things are coming together. But he needs to hold the ball less and be careful where he throws it. If Big J can play consistently that will help Miller a great deal. Miller was close to top 10 status last year and he COULD do it for real this season. I like him a ton though it's painted with caution b/c of the players around him and the team.

He's certainly worth a slightly early backup slot - Carlson and Keller's situations are a tad better (well assuming the Jets oline has no injuries - depth is very thin). But if you get Miller, his upside is prety significant.
...
written by chris kuhlmann-the doc, August 07, 2009
Good stuff Andrew as always. What are your thoughts on Zack Miller?

Write comment

busy