When players and management disagree on what the player's compensation should be, they plead their case to an independent arbitrator.  The arbitrator listens to both sides, looks at the statistical information, and makes a decision on one figure or another. 

In fantasy baseball we all have our own form of arbitration on each individual players.  As I prepare for my fantasy drafts and auctions I am "holding court" on some players as we speak.  These players are making their case for a higher draft position than the FP911 guide recommends. 

Let's examine of few cases and see where my judgment falls.  Please note:  To find all the values of the players, you only need to subscribe to the premium package.

NATE McLOUTH 

• FP911- Projects McLouth to hit .278 with 25 home runs 85 RBIs and 26 steals with 105 runs scored.  We rank him as a Tier 2 OF and ask all to look at his outstanding breakout season of a year ago.
• MCLOUTH DETRACTORS point to his abysmal second half of 7 home runs and 29 RBI.  They also point out that the two best Pirate hitters, Bay and Nady, were traded away and led to Nate's second half swoon.  A Tier 4 OF at best and really one I want to stay away from early they say.
• ARBITRATOR RHETT OLDHAM SAYS:  Based on McLouth's overall career numbers, his second half decline, and the lack of protection in the Pirate lineup I rule in favor of MCLOUTH DETRACTORS

JAYSON WERTH           

• .FP911-Werth ranked as a Tier 5 OF with a projected season of .263 with 22 home runs 75 RBI and stealing 18 bases.  The Pros cite Werth's .255 average versus right handed pitching, the lack of track record as an everyday player, and low projected batting average.
• WERTH FANS cite the similarities with Corey Hart in size and ability.  They also claim that he had a great 2008 season even though he had a stint on the DL and did not become a full time player until after the All Star Break.
• ARBITRATOR RHETT OLDHAM SAYS:  Excellent points on both sides.  Werth fans have become very zealous and are overvaluing him in most mock drafts I examined.  I think Werth will be an excellent player at the right price in 2009 but at present I must side with FP911.

JIMMY ROLLINS     

• FP911 projects Rollins to hit .283 with 15 home runs 70 RBI and stealing 42 bases with over 100 runs scored.  By looking at Rollins' career the Pros look at 2008 as an aberration, citing the scarcity of quality players at the shortstop position, and the "wiffleball" stadium the Phillies play in as reasons to see a bounce back season for JR.
• ROLLINS DETRACTORS cite his career .277 average and the huge drop off from his MVP season as the primary reason not to make Rollins a first round draft selection.
• ARBITRATOR RHETT OLDHAM SAYS:  40 steals from the shortstop position is still pretty salty.  Rollins' history is strong and the speed is consistent.  The relationship he has with manager Charlie Manuel does concern me though.  After weighing all factors I rule in favor of  FP911

MATT WIETERS        

• F911 claims that Wieters is the 11th rated catcher in fantasy baseball.  His power potential and Lenny Melnick's first hand "eye test" in Arizona has led them to believe that he will hit 15 home runs and hit almost .300.
• WIETERS FANS have been drafting him as early as the 5th catcher overall over at mockdraftcentral.com.  They point to his minor league batting average of over .350 and his 1.054 OPS. 
• ARBITRATOR RHETT OLDHAM SAYS:  As much as I believe that Wieters will be an excellent catcher in fantasy baseball I have to temper my enthusiasm for a player who has yet to see a major league pitch. Therefore I favor FP911.

Next week I will examine four more players. Now you are the arbitrator.  Give me your decision and why!

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written by ducat2, January 16, 2009

Rhett,
Sound reasoning in your decisions. Good job.

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written by Patrick DiCaprio, January 16, 2009

i dont agree. here are the park factors for CBP:

2008-1.029
2007-ESPN has it at 0.5 but that is an error
2006-1.063
2005-1.156
2004-1.024

So every year it has been above average. we can quibble about any single number but when year after year it is above 1.0 you cannot claim it is no different than average.

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written by pops13, January 16, 2009

Enough already about Citizen Bank Park playing like a "whiffle ball field." The stadium and its park factors are exactly average when compared to the other 29 major league ball clubs.

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written by RhettOldham, January 15, 2009

Alright, Carlos Gomez and Ryan Ludwick next time you got it...I may have to have TC come on as guest arbitrator for Ludwick but I don't think you will need to...LOL

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written by tonycincotta, January 15, 2009

I love the concept, I am worried about the arbitrator. He seems to have allegiances to the players under arches. I also like to see what he thinks of the 911 projections on Ryan Ludwick.

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KenInToronto
written by Ken, January 14, 2009

I really like the concept of this article, both sides of the argument right there on the screen.

Any chance of doing Carlos Gomez next, I'm a little high on him and would like another opinion before draft season starts.

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written by King, January 14, 2009

Ok man, no problem. Sorry if I came up as kind of a pain in the behind if you know what I mean, but I was just wondering why haven't you responded. Anyways, thanks for taking your time to answer and letting me know what's up...hope to hear from you soon. Keep up the GREAT work!

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written by RhettOldham, January 14, 2009

King, my fault, been busy with the interest rates going down on 30 year mortgages...I will get that out to you before 5PM EST today.

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written by King, January 14, 2009

Hye Rhett, I emailed you about 2 days ago about my Dynasty League, and never heard back from you......?

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written by JoeLano, January 14, 2009

I drafted McLouth in the last round of more than one draft last season and he paid off in a big way.

With that said, I feel he is going way too early in mock drafts so far this season and is a player I am staying away from because of it.

Sorry Nate, but thanks for all your help last season!

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Rhett Oldham
written by Rhett Oldham, January 14, 2009

The hardest one for me is Werth...I think he will have a breakout campaign and will be in that 20-20 fraternity. I just need to figure out if he is Corey hart or Mike Cameron.

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written by BrianJoura, January 14, 2009

Good stuff!

I look forward to more in this series.

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written by big o, January 14, 2009

nice job for you rhett.
sort of like bruce almighty 2.

not so long ago that the pirates were considering nyger morgan over mcclouth.
they did the right thing (imo) by letting him season a bit more , as indicated by his minor league stats. still , for nate , consistancy issues persist.

enjoyed the article.

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written by MichaelMuschiano, January 13, 2009

According to FP911 then, Mclouth is a better player pretty much across the board than Rollins. I've said it before, I'm not sold on Mclouth. I think the projections are very generous considering he's only played one good half of baseball in his pro career. That lineup is pathetic and he was god awful in the second half. I'm staying the heck away from him in any draft this year!

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