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29 Jan 2010 |
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When I first started playing fantasy baseball, I knew nothing about the inner-workings of the game. I had no idea how complex and comprehensive it was. I was clueless as to how much scrutiny was placed on a player's stats. Yet somehow I was able to find success early. The reason I was able to find early success was because I knew the players and I knew how to play the game of baseball.
I was lucky enough to play competitive baseball until last year when I called it quits at the age of 26 (still contemplating a comeback). I was a catcher nearly all of my baseball career and as a catcher I was able to learn the mechanics of both hitting and pitching. I have incorporated my knowledge of mechanics into scouting players for fantasy baseball. Having played and coached baseball for 20 years, I've developed a pretty good eye for identifying talented players. Sometimes it's easy. Sometimes a player has so much talent that you can't miss it. For most of the baseball hacks that I've played with you have to watch closely to see the habits of the players, what they do mechanically that makes them good players. So how do you break down the best players in the world? It's a little bit harder. The reason being is that every single one of these players know the proper mechanics. However, not everyone chooses to employ the proper mechanics or sometimes mentally break away from their mechanics for periods of time. Sometimes a player is so good that proper mechanics aren't necessarily important to them. For the greats of the game, you really don't have to pay attention to their mechanics unless they are slumping. However, for the average to above average players, mechanics are very important when scouting them. My new colleague Mike Podhorzer asked me a few questions about how I judge talent and potential. It isn't very difficult to judge a player's talent. It should jump out at you. How did I know Alexi Ramirez was going to be a very good Major League player? There were no numbers available to tell me that he was going to be good. So how did I know? After watching him play about four times in Spring Training, I knew. I saw how he handled the inside pitch, how the ball jumped off his bat, and his ability to drive the ball to all fields. I saw a talented baseball player. A system that scouts use to rate a player's talent is to judge them category by category. We all know the five tools that they judge, that is a given. Say, you're trying to determine how a player will hit for average. A scout will give the player grades such as excellent, good, above average, average, below average and poor. These are things that anyone can do. I plan on doing an article in the near future on a system that I will be putting to use to grade both hitters and pitchers. This is a system that anyone can use. Many times you can't fairly judge a player's talent after four games. For the good to very good players that may be all you need unless they are slumping at the time. Most of the time it takes a good number of games to judge a player fairly. Sometimes I will see a player who I think has good talent but I'm still unsure. I will keep my eye on him for a few weeks, sometimes months, or sometimes even a year before I think about adding him to my team. Potential is the hardest thing to judge. Many times I will identify a player with very good talent but they never reach their full potential or even half of their full potential. Many things factor into identifying potential. So the player definitely has talent. The first factor that I look at is his age. If a player is knocking on 30 and hasn't reached his full potential, it's highly unlikely that he ever will. One of the factors that make up how I determine potential is a player's "Baseball IQ". Does a player understand the little things it takes to make a great player? This is were work ethic also comes into play. Does he have good coaches that will emphasize these essentials? A dumb player is never going to be great. Take for instance Nick Swisher. He has all of the talent needed to be a great player. However, he has too many bad habits, lapses in focus, along with what I've seen to be a below average baseball IQ. I don't believe that Swisher will ever reach his full potential. I feel the same way about pitchers Brad Penny and A.J. Burnett. Now these are all very good players but I feel they could be great but probably never will be. Mike also asked if I watch players that I'm judging having known their stats, believing that this would influence my evaluation. No real scout cares what a player's stats are until they have seen the player perform with his own eyes. That stats are public knowledge and it's hard to judge a player without already having come across his stats. Good stats are what draws a scout to the player but he doesn't base his decision on stats. He bases his decision on the things that I've talked about: natural talent, mechanics, baseball IQ, work ethic, and character. A fantasy player doesn't necessarily need to take into effect all of these traits but they all come into play at some point. Biases don't factor in until after I've watched the player. I've also included sabermetrics into my evaluations of players but I rely on what I see with my eyes more than anything. I was never great at math and too many numbers hurt my brain. I get headaches just balancing my checkbook sometimes. However, I can't deny the effectiveness of using sabermetrics and the benefit that they bring to fantasy players. There are some really great sites out there that I use to help evaluate players, especially prospects. One of my favorite sites, www.baseball-intellect.com, combines scouting with sabermetrics as well as any other site on the web. YouTube is a great place to go to be entertained. It's also a great site to go to find videos of prospects to help with your scouting. Sometimes I'll just Google or Yahoo Search a player to find everything I can on him. These are some of the tools I use to help me. I hope this article was informative and helpful. I'm just trying to give you a little insight into my style and how I evaluate players. Hopefully, I've helped you get to know me a little better and hopefully I've turned you on to another way of looking at fantasy baseball. You can find more of my writing on my baseball blog at www.behindtheplatefantasy.com. Trackback(0)
Comments (12)
  written by Djbomber, January 05, 2009
Thanks Chris,
That You tube is great isn't it? When I went to see Hamilton play in a few games in 1999 I spent several hours with his parents each game. They were the nicest people you'd ever want to meet. They told me a lot about Josh's High School career and the whole process. I even met Josh's old agent Casey Close. I visited Josh again in his comeback in 2006 and spoke with him awhile. We spoke of his children and belive me he was humbled. He is happy for his chance to play ball again. I went to his booksigning last month in NYC and got a few minutes with him. He made sure to shake every fans hand. He is a really nice and respectful kid. Some Yankee fans were saying that they want him to come to NY to be their CF. He said He said he's property of Texas for 3 more years! LOL I read the book and liked it a lot. Chris, being that you read the book, don't you find it amazing that he could compete at this level after not playing pretty much for 3-4 years and maybe what 400 minor league ab's since 1999? Especially after what he did to his body with drugs? That shows that he is a rare talent he is. Djbomber Dave S. Staten Island
written by ducat2, January 03, 2009
Thank you Chris. I will start paying attention to the speed gun and the pitcher's confidence.
written by Chris Mulligan, January 03, 2009
Joe,
Thanks man, I was feeling the same way about Ramirez and Ozzie early in the season. Especially when they were talking about sending him to the minors. I think Alexi is a Soriano-type but I don't think he will steal as many bases as Soriano has or hit for quite the amount of power but a very similar player. He will be a very valuable player this year at 2B and in the years to come at SS. Good job yourself man! Ducat, If you are unable to break down players from a scouting perspective then the best thing that you can do is to see if a pitcher is pitching with confidence. I believe that a confident pitcher can overcome some mechanical issues or even mediocre ability. Also if you're having trouble detecting pitches, keep an eye on the speed gun. The MPH will give you an idea of what pitch was thrown. Thanks man!
written by Chris Mulligan, January 03, 2009
DJBomber,
Thanks for the compliment. Unfortunately I don't live in an area that has many minor league teams so I scout prospects by watching YouTube videos or whatever else I can get my hands on. I wish there were more teams in my area but I don't see it happening any time soon. Have you read the Josh Hamilton book yet? I reviewed it and you can read my review at www.behindtheplatefantasy.com - it's a must read!
written by ducat2, January 02, 2009
Nice article Chris. Not having played or coached, however, how much can someone trust what is seen on TV (or as Patrick eloquently put it, "through the prism of the tube")or the occasional visit to the ballpark. Sure it's easy to spot someone that is head and shoulders better than most. But it's difficult to detect subtle differences especially when most of the viewing is done on TV. I can see if a pitcher is having good command, but sometimes it's hard for me to know the exact pitch that was thrown when viewing on TV.
written by JoeLano, January 02, 2009
Nice job Chris. I felt the same way about Alexi Ramirez when I saw him play a few times. I drafted him as a sleeper in a few drafts and was cussing Ozzie Guillen for not playing him at the start of the season.
Everytime I see Alexi hit he reminds me of Alfonso Soriano. Do you see the same thing and do you think he can be the same type of player as Soriano?
written by Djbomber, January 02, 2009
Nice article Chris. Love the site. I'm lucky enough to live in a area when I'm able to see many minor league games at all levels. I head out to Trenton to see the Yanks AA team and go to see the hot prospects like Weiters,Lars Anderson, Matt LaPorta. It's fun watching them and love taking guys that I've scouted in my fantasy draft. I saw Josh Hamilton play in 1999 and knew from the first time I saw him hit a ball in BP that he was a rare talent. Glad that Josh got his life together, he's a great guy and nice role model for those who've had problems in the past. Keep up the GREAT work Chris!!!
Djbomber (Dave) Staten Island, New York
written by Chris Mulligan, January 02, 2009
Thanks Yogi, it seems that what we get from watching games and scouting players is becoming somewhat of a lost art in fantasy baseball. I respect and admire the way that Patrick and Mike approach fantasy baseball as well and I think they're the best at it.
I've said many times that there isn't one way to win at fantasy baseball. I think those who suceed use whatever information they can digest to give them the edge. That's why all of our writers are so good!
written by Yogi, January 01, 2009
Pat,
LOL, Of course you are correct on this point. If I was that smart about scouting players, my paycheck would be cut by some major league team instead of my current employer. Even the most uneducated eye will quickly spot those players that just seem to carry themselves differently. After passing the eyeball test, I'll do the character research that Chris mentioned. Sometimes I have to reverse engineer, when I see someone who's getting the results, but doesn't pass the eye test. Most often, an incredible work ethic that allows them to get every last ounce out of their physical abilities. The final piece is checking out the research you have done. There are a ton of guys, these days, tossing stats at me. Only a select group that I trust. Pat, you're at the head of that class. Not a brown-nose job just the truth. Keep it up.
written by patrick dicaprio, January 01, 2009
alright yogi, to quote Al Bundy "that's it, your IN the will!" great job by chris and my only problem is that when we watch games do we really get enough data from scouting and do we really understand what we are looking at through the prism of the tube?
written by Yogi, January 01, 2009
Chris,
Loved your article. We could be "twin brothers from different mothers", (not sure if that's a good thing). This is the exact approach that I take with my teams. I respect the heck out of Patrick, Mike and the other Sabermetric guys, but it seems that there is only so much time. I'll watch the games and players and if what my eyes are telling me and the results don't match up, I'll peek over their shoulder looking for possible explanations as to why. Let them do the heavy lifting. Sorry Pat and Mike, that's how Yogi rolls. Keep up the great writing.
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I absolutely find it amazing that he is able to do what he has done since his return. Especially since he was down to 185 lbs at his lowest point. I know that when I was playing, if I didn't see live pitching for a week I struggled. This guy didn't see live pitching for years it's like nothing ever happened. This is why I call him the real life Roy Hobbs.