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Great Debate Standings
| Writers Name | Win | Lose | GB |
| Anthony Catanzaro | 9 | 3 | |
| Boris From DownUnder | 8 | 4 | 1 |
| Greg Marta | 5 | 5 | 3 |
| Eric Gehman | 4 | 7 | 6 |
| Richard Carter | 2 | 10 | 7 |
Joey has dropped out of the competition. We'd like to wish him nothing but the best of luck.
06 Jul 2009 |
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| Eric takes a crack at who will end up help your Fantasy Baseball team more in the second half of the season. (Mind you these were submitted 10 days ago. The guys had their All-Star Break and come back for action.) My 2nd Half Stud Team:
Baseball is a marathon, not a sprint, right? 70-some games into the season, some players are just hitting their stride, while others are starting to fade from hot starts. The key to winning in fantasy baseball is to be always looking backward to project future performance, rather than focusing on present stats. So, I’ve compiled a list of struggling or underperforming players who look primed to break out in the second half of the season, whether due to statistical anomalies, injuries, or fluke cold streaks. If you are worried about some of these players and you already own them, hang tight: according to their career stats, better days are ahead. If you can buy some of these guys on the cheap, put a feeler out and try to acquire while the price is right. The window may close faster than you’d thought.
C - Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves (Honorable Mention: Matt Wieters) -
This seems like an obvious person to start off the list; he was awesome last year and so far he’s hitting the lights out. The only problem with McCann so far this year is the lack of power he’s shown, with only 6 HR, hardly on pace to match the 23 he belted in 2008. Frankly, the power is still there, and despite the early season eye injury, he’s seeing the ball better than ever (12.4 BB%, compared to an 8.8 career BB%) and should have no trouble belting 10 HR and hitting .300 from here on out. Play up the low power numbers and try to buy him off his owner at a reduced price. Props go to über-prospect Matt Wieters, who should see steady improvement as he adjusts to major league pitching. It didn’t take him long to figure out how to crush the ball when he moved up to AAA last year, so I don’t expect him to take too much longer to start living up to the hype in the Majors as well.
1B - Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds
So he had a weird extended absence for some mental health issues - the same thing happened to another player named Zack Greinke a few years ago, and look how he’s doing. Personally, I’m rooting for Votto to show the world that he’s healthy and ready to play again, and with the way he was hitting before he hit the DL with a stress condition, it’s hard to discount him as a top-flight keeper and a great option at 1B going forward. Keep your eyes peeled on his first few days back and then bet the farm on him if things look good, because 15 HR and a .300 average aren’t out of range for a healthy Votto.
2B - Alexei Ramirez, Chicago White Sox
The Cuban Missile had a miserable start to the year and looked like a candidate for bust of the year just a few scant weeks ago. Things are starting to turn around for Lexi, and while he still has a long way to go, his plate discipline is getting better this year (he’s already matched his total of 18BB from last year and his walk rate is double that of last year, from 3.6% to 6.8%). His power is lacking, and his BABIP was sitting in the gutter for a bit, but finally we’re starting to see the 20/20 threat we envisioned at the beginning of season. If you can still get a hold of him on the cheap, take the risk - ZiPS likes him to hit 11HR and steal 8 bags while hitting somewhere in the .280s range for the rest of the year, hardly numbers to sneeze at for a MI. There’s certainly room for more power and he’s on pace to surpass his SB total of 13 from 2008 within a matter of a week or two.
SS - Stephen Drew, Arizona Diamondbacks
Okay, things haven’t been pretty for this hot preseason pick. His average is in the tank (.235), he’s slugging a weak .390 (.445 career), and he’s hit only 4 HR in his first 187 ABs this season. Not exactly prolific numbers we had hoped for, but Drew had a hot second half last year and could quietly become a top-5 shortstop for the rest of the year, as none of his stats suggest that his approach has changed radically; it seems like he just hasn’t seen the ball well so far this year. The BABIP is down a bit and his K rate has climbed a slight amount, but his walk rate is up and he’s been on a hot streak over the past few weeks. I’d gamble that the hammy problems are behind him and that he’ll hit the same way he always has going forward.
3B - Adrian Beltre, Seattle Mariners -
What happened to this guy? Beltre’s been a consistent 25HR threat for what seems like forever, and yet he has 5 so far this year with a wimpy .117 ISO. I can’t really explain the power outage, but I can say that I like his chances to hit for power in the second half just as much as ever. Guys don’t forget how to hit overnight (excluding Andruw Jones and Jeff Francoeur) and Beltre was the victim of some bad luck at the beginning of the year, so look for the average to hold steady in the .250-.260 range while he finds his power swing again. If anyone can do it, it’s got to be Beltre, right? ZiPS likes him for 12 HR over the rest of the season, which isn’t shabby, especially if you can get Beltre on the cheap right now.
CI - Adam LaRoche (Honorable Mention: Andy LaRoche), Pittsburgh Pirates -
He always hits better in the second half than he does in the first; a July breakout from the elder LaRoche is such a regular occurrence in MLB that you’d swear he’s just dogging it through April and May and taking June to warm himself up for the season. Buy now before things really get hot and ride him for a .270ish average and 10-15 HR. Even better, there are rumors that he could be traded, so if he finds his way to a better lineup, his R/RBI totals could easily spike. His younger bro gets a shout-out for showing some signs of life after years of bouncing back and forth between AAA and the majors (even if he still hasn’t hit for the power we’re really looking for…).
MI - Sean Rodriguez, LAA Angels -
The kid has raked in the minors. He’s got 21 HR in AAA already this year over just 237 PA, and with Howie Kendrick’s struggles, there’s no legitimate reason for Mike Scioscia to pass up an opportunity to see how Rodriguez fares at the major league level. Don’t look for average - ZiPS sees him as a .230s hitter, and he hit .204 over 167 AB last year - but the power is there and that’s nothing to sneeze at. What if he starts to see consistent playing time and smacks 10-15 HR over the rest of the year with a .250 average and decent R/RBI totals? Well, that’d make him Dan Uggla, but chances are Rodriguez is still in your FA pool and Uggla is not. If you’ve got bench space, why not take a flyer on Rodriguez and see if he sticks in Anaheim?
OF - Colby Rasmus, St. Louis Cardinals -
Rasmus had some trouble at the beginning of the year, but as he sees more and more playing time he’s beginning to show the Cards just why he was considered a top prospect for the past few years. Don’t look for anything better than the .270 average, but with the upside to jack 10-15 bombs and swipe 5-10 bases, Rasmus could be a serious contender for NL Rookie of the Year this season for both real and fantasy baseball.
OF - Jay Bruce, Cincinnati Reds -
The power is there so far, with 17 homers to his name this season, but Jay Bruce has been more of a disappointment for his owners due to the Mendoza-esque .216 average. He hit .254 last year, and his OBP isn’t much worse than last year due to an improved walk rate, so wait out the .205 BABIP and look for him to level out his swing (the 47.9 FB% isn’t doing you any favors, Jay) and raise his abysmal 13.8 LD%. Is an Adam Dunn-like .250 average with 15 HR and 50+ RBI possible over the rest of the season? ZiPS thinks so, and I’m inclined to agree. A few more SB would be nice, but so far Bruce doesn’t seem to have the green light from Dusty Baker, so don’t hold your breath.
OF - Xavier Nady, New York Yankees -
Remember him? It shouldn’t take long for Nady to surpass the frustratingly inconsistent Nick Swisher on the Yanks’ depth chart when he comes back from his elbow injury, and assuming that his rehab has been effective, there’s no reason to believe Xavier won’t be the same guy who’s been hitting 20-25 HR and a high .200s average in the powerful Yankees’ lineup. Nady is a solid hitter and can help across the board (except steals), so he’s worth stashing on the DL if no one’s picked him up yet. ZiPS sees 10HR and a .284 average for the year. That’s not too bad, is it?
SP - Rich Harden, Chicago Cubs -
Yes, he gets hurt a lot. Yes, he’s frustratingly inconsistent. But hear me out - Harden owns a 9.12 K/9 ratio and his HR/9 and HR/BB% have spiked this year for no apparent reason. Obviously Wrigley isn’t the cavernous Oakland Coliseum, but it’s no Yankee Stadium either. Since HR/FB% is not a stat pitchers can control, we should always expect it to regress to league average (unless we’re talking about Brett Myers - that’s a different story) of about 10%, meaning Harden should see better luck in the future as he accrues more IP. If he stays healthy (an if becoming less and less prominent over the past two seasons), Harden should be dominant and post up #2 starter quality numbers and great strikeout totals over the rest of the season. ZiPS has him pegged for a 3.05 ERA and 83 Ks before the end of the year, pretty great numbers for a pitcher who has had some pretty rotten luck so far this year.
RP - J.P. Howell, Tampa Bay Rays -
Someone’s got to close in Tampa, right? Howell’s been the only reliable pitcher in the Rays’ ‘pen, with a tough-as-nails 2.31 FIP and staunch 10.9 K/9. His ERA sits at 1.82, and it seems like he’ll be getting most of the save opps from here on out, unless the Rays import someone else to close, which at this point seems as likely as Troy Percival coming back and becoming a dominant closer again (read: not very, in this humble writer’s opinion). If you can still find him out there, pick him up and enjoy the ERA and Ks, and wait for Joe Maddon to announce Howell as the official closer soon.
All stats come from Fangraphs.com
Who Has The Best Argument For The All-Second Half Team? Trackback(0)
Comments (3)
  written by Doug Koehler, July 06, 2009
Just a thought but since Rodriguez was sent down, your predictions are already going south. As for Drew...I would have more expectations from Brandon Wood. I think Harden, Rasmus and Howell are the no brainers in this one. I like Rasmus a ton, but with the prospect hopefuls in my league, Rasmus is already Pujols in their mind's eye which makes grabbing him less than promising.
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Tags: Brian McCann Atlanta Braves Joey Votto Cincinnati Reds Alexei Ramirez Chicago White Sox Stephen Drew Arizona Diamondbacks Adrian Beltre Seattle Mariners Adam LaRoche Pittsburgh Pirates Sean Rodriguez LAA Angels Colby Rasmus St. Louis Cardinals Jay Bruce Cincinnati Reds Xavier Nady New York Yankees Rich Harden Chicago Cubs J.P. Howell Tampa Bay Rays
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If you want someone to blame because of some minor inaccuracies please blame me.
Thanks
Paul