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If you are unfamiliar with the RULES for the is contest, you can get caught up to speed HERE. * Spring Training scores do not count for the regular season. This is to get everyone ready for a long season of writing. None of the articles have been or will be modified for the staff of FantasyPros911.com. Spring Training Week One Question:Why Hanley Ramirez is Fantasy Baseball’s number one pick?Eric Gehman, the home team, will take the pro side to this debate Hanley Ramirez is, simply put, the most valuable player in all of fantasy baseball. Albert Pujols may be a better "pure" hitter, and David Wright may put up strong numbers year in and year out, but no player gives you the combination of skill, production, and upside that guarantees you a player who (barring injury) will at worst put up stats even with the year before, and at best be a legitimate threat for a 40 HR/40 SB season. The numbers do not lie: Hanley put up an astounding .301/.400/.540 line last season, and based on his BABIP (.332, actually .022 below his career average) and his markedly improved walk rate (13.5%), we can expect Hanley to repeat his prodigious plate discipline and his high average, and at the ripe young age of 25, he has significant room to improve his power numbers despite his brawny HR/FB% of 19.2% (which was actually higher than Miguel Cabrera's last year, despite playing in the ball-swallowing park that is Dolphin Stadium). Let’s take a look at the other guys in consideration for pick numero uno. I’m not here to say that Pujols, Wright, and Reyes aren’t absolutely studs. But to look at counting stats directly and say that Pujols or Wright could put up as good (or even better) numbers than Hanley is to miss the point. The point is position scarcity. Position scarcity, in essence, means that there simply aren’t as many good SS available as there are corner infielders. If you pass up on Hanley with the first pick, you’re guaranteed to miss out on Reyes (ADP: 4.9) and Rollins (ADP: 10.3), which means you’ll be looking at a steep drop-off to the next SS taken, Derek Jeter (who won’t come close to Hanley’s numbers except average). On the other hand, if you pass up on Wright or Pujols, when your turn comes around again at 24, there’s a good chance that Prince Fielder (ADP: 25.8), Justin Morneau (ADP: 32.2), or Alex Rodriguez (ADP: 29.3) will be around for you to draft. That’s close production relative to Pujols and Wright, and they can be had 1-2 rounds later. If you want to wait back even further on a 1B (knowing that it’s a relatively stocked position), players like Adrian Gonzalez (ADP: 57.9), Derrek Lee (ADP: 60.8), Carlos Pena (ADP: 80.7) and Joey Votto (ADP: 87.5) all offer solid, steady alternatives to their early-round counterparts. Waiting back on SS, however, means settling for risky alternatives like Rafael Furcal or Troy Tulowitzki (both sidelined with injuries most of last year), the streaky (and still developing) Stephen Drew, or the vastly overrated Michael Young (who rarely contributes in anything but average) with your middle-round picks. Taking Hanley first gives you the opportunity to build a stronger, more balanced team, with less risk and more reward. All stats taken from Fangraphs.com, and ADP comes from ESPN’s Life Draft Results Before you vote read Boris from Downunder's con side  Loading Poll...Trackback(0)
Comments (9)
  written by Dave S, March 20, 2009
Well said, now, if only I had the first pick in my draft...
written by Nathan, March 19, 2009
While I think this is definitely the easier side to argue, you do a good job showing that position scarcity is, in fact, a positive for Hanley, not for Wright.
written by patrick dicaprio, March 18, 2009
if we stand for anything it is unbiased opinions! :lol:
written by Eric Gehman, March 18, 2009
I should be impartial when it comes to Fantasy Baseball, but yeah, those guys are pretty big chokers and if I'm setting my lineup in September, I might leave Wright or Reyes out since they're probably not going to produce at the same level as a lot of other players who are more clutch.
written by GSGDoc, March 18, 2009
E-man:
Good tight argument, well-written, hard to dispute Hanley's stats. But really, no love for J-Roll? And Fantasy Baseball needs a separate stat for Wright and Reyes, the BGTC (that's Big Game, Tight Collar). Those two would lead the league every year!
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