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28 May 2009 |
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Tweet me!| Edwin Jackson has flown under the radar for couple of years but this year he has forced many to open their eyes to his talent. Jackson was not a very highly touted prospect coming out of high school (and he was not even a pitcher) but compiled some impressive minor league statistics. After getting knocked around as a Dodgers’ starter Jackson faced more of the same in the Rays’ bullpen.
In 2007, Jackson started the season as a starter for the Rays and started awfully. He began the season by going 1-9 with a 7.23 ERA in 17 starts. The Rays stuck with him and Jackson posted much better second half numbers by going 4-6 with a 4.48 ERA after the All-Star Break. With an impressive ‘08 season, Jackson made a blip on the fantasy baseball radar for the first time in his career. The season was up and down for Jackson but signs of a quality pitcher began to emerge and Jackson finished the season with 14 wins to tie a Rays’ franchise record. The New Jackson  Jackson has been pitching out of his mind this season and looks like he has finally figured it out. It’s hard to say where the Tigers would be without Jackson performing like he has, but it’s safe to say that he is a big reason that they are in first. Jackson is currently 4-3 with a 2.58 ERA in ten starts this season. In 66.1 IP, Jackson has 50 K with only 17 BB and a 1.12 WHIP.However, it’s his peripherals that tell the real story of his hot start. His K/9 is up over a full strikeout from 5.30 last season to 6.78 so far this season. Jackson is also walking less hitters. His BB/9 is down to 2.31 this season from 3.78 last season. Batters are hitting only .234 against him and has given up only five HR thus far. Jackson’s best two pitches have been the reason for his success. His fastball is looking better than ever, averaging 94.5 MPH. This is also an increase from last season. He is using his slider much more this year and doing so effectively. He has been able to throw it for strikes as well as use it as his out pitch. If you are big on quality starts, Jackson has gone at least six innings in his last six starts. He has also given up over three earned runs in a game only once this season. At this pace, Jackson his headed for a career year. But can he keep this pace up? Making the Case to Sell High While Jackson is has had a great first two months of the season, there is a high probability that this is the best that he pitches all year. That is not saying that he won’t end up with quality numbers to end the season, but to expect him to keep an ERA under 3.00 while striking out almost three hitters for every walk is expecting a lot. Jackson has yet to have a 200 IP season, and if this season is to be his first then it stands to reason that he will have some struggles along the way. It is very rare to see a pitcher go over 200 IP for the first time in his career while maintaining stellar numbers throughout the year. Jackson can maintain his strikeout rate, but a rise in his walk rate is to be expected. A BB/9 somewhere closer to 3.00 is more conceivable than his current rate. It is no secret that Jackson is a fly ball pitcher. Having said that, his FB% is actually up almost 4% from last year and yet his HR/FB is down significantly. It is only a matter of time before the fly balls begin to catch up to him and begin to hurt that stellar WHIP. Still Want to Ride Him Out? It is hard to fault an owner for wanting to stick with Jackson for a while longer. However, while you try to squeeze every last ounce of value out of him, realize that this is the moment in time in which you can get maximum value for him. Jackson has pitched like a top 20 pitcher but to think that he will finish the season as a top 20 pitcher is asking a lot of a pitcher who has never pitched 200 innings or had an ERA under 4.00. This year still looks to be the breakout year for Jackson but the final stats will look a little different than they currently stand. An ERA around 3.50 is more likely suited for Jackson this season with a WHIP somewhere around 1.28. Another good start from Jackson in his next outing would boost his value to an all-time high. My advice is to cash in before the window of opportunity passes. What are your thoughts on Jackson? Are you looking to sell him high? Do you think he can carry on at this pace?
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