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17 Mar 2009 |
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| As Chris and Ryan have already done for BTP, it’s time for me to discuss some of my top candidates for sleeper picks by position. I have a slightly different perception of what a sleeper pick is than most, which is important to know when reading through this list. To me, a sleeper doesn’t have to be a guy who’s never produced before, nor does he need to bare the title “The Evan Longoria of 2009.” My sleeper team has a few of these guys on it, but it generally consists of guys who I think are pretty undervalued for whatever reason and will give you the most value for where you’re likely able to get them in a draft. So don’t expect to read about guys you’ve never heard of before here – just expect a little different perspective.
C – Ryan Doumit
1B – Jason Giambi
2B – Orlando Hudson
3B – Dallas McPherson
SS – Orlando Cabrera
OF1 – Andre Ethier
OF2 – Denard Span
OF3 – Travis Snider
SP1 – Chien-Ming Wang
SP2 – Ricky Nolasco
SP3 – Max Scherzer
RP1 – Hong-Chih Kuo
RP2 – Chris Perez
RP3 – Carlos Marmol
What do you think? Want to know about the logic behind my picks? Anyone you disagree with? Who would you pick as your sleepers?
: I can’t believe that this guy still manages to be undervalued. Few deny his dominance as a reliever (11.75 K/9, 0.93 WHIP in ’08), and now he’s the likely favorite to become the Cubs’ closer, yet he’s still getting taken in double-digit rounds? I can understand not giving up too premium of a pick on a reliever but I can’t help but see this guy as a steal for as late as he’s been going in drafts.: A lot of his value will be derived from the role he lands in the Cards’ bullpen this year but he could still bring you value if he doesn’t start the year as their closer (which would actually make him more of a sleeper). He needs to work on his control but he’s a powerful strikeout pitcher. Plus, even if he doesn’t start out in the closer role, he could easily fall into it with any struggles from whoever gets the job. : My brother discussed Kuo’s dominance in a fabulous series he did over at 3-dbaseball.net that covered relief pitchers from 2008, so please check that out if you haven’t already. Basically, Kuo can bring you tremendous value even without being a closer from his strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP. With a super-human K/BB rate of 4.57 and a WHIP of 1.01 in ‘08, you can understand giving up a little on saves to get him. : He may still be a bit of a reach for 2009 but Scherzer is a guy with a lot of upside. His strikeout rates have been marvelous, posting a K/9 mark of 13.42 in 13 games (10 starts) at AAA and a mark of 10.61 in 16 games (7 starts) at the bigs. He still needs work on his control but his 3.38 BB/9 rate at the bigs last year marked a steady improvement from each of his previous two placements. If he earns a spot in the D-Backs’ rotation, he could be a risk worth taking late in drafts. : David Golebiewski did an excellent profile of Nolasco recently at FanGraphs, and I highly recommend checking it out. Basically, Nolasco very quietly put up some monster fantasy totals last year. 15 wins, 186 K’s, a 3.52 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. Folks, that’s amazing, especially for someone you probably know next-to-nothing about. It will be hard to duplicate those numbers but anything close to that at where you can likely get him would be phenomenal. : There’s nothing flashy about this pick, but I think his is the most consistently undervalued starter in fantasy. You won’t see him taken before the 17th or 18th round, but he’ll give you a legitimate shot at 20 wins and a sub-4 ERA. Health is a big concern with him, but isn’t that the case with any starting pitcher? Getting these numbers this late in the draft is a felony. : Yet another young darling that has been the object of a recent profile of mine, Snider’s been a guy I’ve had no problem getting as a reserve in the last round of drafts. Playing time could be a question for him but the lack of a free agent outfielder/DH acquisition by Toronto tells me that they’re ready to give him a shot. I think he could surprise a lot of people given the chance to start this year. : My brother originally got me hooked on this guy but he’s another promising youngster primed for bigger and better things. With 18 steals and 70 runs in only 93 games last year, I’m eager to see what he can do over a full season. His SB success rate is a little troublesome but getting this kind of speed in one of your last picks is hard to argue with. : Another player I recently profiled, Ethier strikes me as the kind of guy primed for a breakout year. He’s a young player who improved dramatically in nearly every aspect of his game last year (including the very promising indicators of contact rate, walk rate and HR/FB ratio) and only looks to go up from here. He probably benefited from Manny’s presence more than anyone on the Dodgers last year so Manny’s new contract is great news for him. He’s a guy that will probably be your third/fourth outfielder, yet he may be your best producer by year’s end. : Another aging veteran looking for a renaissance in Oakland, Cabrera has a shot to become the catalyst for a much-improved A’s offense. It will be hard to duplicate the chances for success he had with last year’s White Sox offense but I think that his actual value has fallen far less than his perceived value. : Refer to my recent profile of McPherson at the old BTP blog for more detail- I think he has a shot at being this year’s Ryan Ludwick. He’s an explosive minor league power threat entering the twilight of his prime but the big question for him will be playing time. If he earns a starting job this month, watch out. : It’s hard to get an accurate sense of his perceived value since he only signed with the Dodgers a few weeks ago (what a quiet acquisition that was, though), but I think it’s safe to say that Hudson is pretty undervalued going into 2009. If healthy, he brings a pretty dynamic skill set into a Manny-laden Dodger offense which (pending on where he hits in the lineup) could mean a surplus of runs for him this year. If you choose to wait on your second baseman, I’d definitely urge you to keep Hudson in mind. : I’m not a big advocate for purely power hitters in fantasy baseball but when you can get them as late as you can get Giambi, why not? He’s a legitimate threat to hit 30 homers which he’s done in three of the last four seasons (the only one in which he didn’t was 2007, in which he only played 83 games), and this can bring you tremendous value in the later rounds. His perceived value seems to be plummeting, yet a change of scenery may help him have a resurgent year. : In most leagues there are 5 catchers that will go before Doumit: Mauer, McCann, Martin, Soto and Wieters. It’s also likely that there will be a lull in catchers right after these five are taken, and Doumit will give you great value at this point in the draft. There are guys like Napoli and Ianetta still on the board, but I think Doumit is head-and-shoulders above all the other catchers that aren’t the five best. His power isn’t anything special but his .318 average from last year looks awfully enticing for a mid-round catcher. Plus, his increasing LD% in recent years bodes well for continued success here. He’s also a pretty safe bet to get a majority of his team’s starts which is always a grey area for catchers.
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Comments (6)
  written by tonycincotta, March 20, 2009
Snider will get enough AB's as we get some at DH as well
written by RyanCampbell, March 20, 2009
I like the sleepers John. However, I don't think Snider will get enough playing time to be of any value. Rios and Wells are entrenched in the oufield (Wells contract will have him anchored in CF at the SkyDome for many years), and Lind played very well once Cito took over and gave him the playing time he deserved.
written by hostile postulate, March 18, 2009
i apologize for two of the links not working for the references to outside articles on kuo and nolasco.
the kuo article can be found at www.3-dbaseball.net/2009/02/i-...earch.html the nolasco article can be found at www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/inde...olasco-kid
written by Kincaid, March 18, 2009
Marmol was arguably the best reliever in the NL last year. With him likely to be given most of the save chances this year, he could easily provide similar value to closers going much higher.
Hawkins would be a great sleeper for drafts with 40 rounds.
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Tags: Behind The Plate John Dorhauer sleepers value picks Ryan Doumit Jason Giambi Orlando Hudson Orlando Cabrera Dallas McPherson Andre Ethier Denard Span Travis Snider Chien-Ming Wang Ricky Nolasco Max Scherzer Hong-Chih Kuo Chris Perez Carlos Marmol
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