Due to time constraints on last night's Fantasy Baseball Roundtable Radio Show, I didn't get a chance to jump back in to the discussion on reaching, which really was a lively discussion that could last for hours upon hours.  To me, if you want to make sure that you're going to get someone you know you want, sometimes reaching becomes a necessity.

Part of the discussion focused on ADP, but I ask you exactly what does someone's Average Draft Position mean to a drafter?  It shouldn't be taken as gospel, that's for sure, because if someone has an ADP of 12.3, for instance, that means that's the average of where he's been drafted.  In some leagues he could have been taken in the 9th, 10th or 11th Rounds, while in others he has been taken in the 13th, 14th or 15th.

The best example I can give is with Rich Harden in the three mock drafts I've participated in thus far this season.  I've seen him drafted in the 9th Round twice and then in the 13th Round.  That would give him an ADP of roughly 10.5, but in fact it is only that low because in one draft he wasn't valued so highly and fell a few rounds later then in the other two.  Does this mean that if you're picking at the end of the 8th Round you shouldn't grab Harden if you are convinced that he is going to be able to stay healthy and put up a tremendous season because you are taking him 2 rounds earlier then his average?

Absolutely not, because as you can see, if your next pick is not until the end of the 9th Round, chances are he's not going to be there waiting for you.  In fact, it would appear to be a 33% chance that he's there, despite an ADP saying that he should be taken there.  No, that doesn't mean that I personally would use my 8th Round pick on Harden, but that's just me personally.  If you are sold on him being an important part of your fantasy roster, then I say make the pick.  There's nothing wrong with it.

Granted, as we move further along in the pre-draft season, a player's ADP is going to be based on a lot more data then my example here giving it a lot more weight.  The point is, though, that like anything else ADP should be used as a guideline not as gospel.  The fact is that every draft is different and knowing your opponents and when you can or can't get someone is half the battle.  If you do not believe that the player will still be on the board when your pick comes around again, then do what you need to do to get him if you truly do want him.

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