Not every career unfolds in a normal pattern. Matt Stairs put up some nice minor league numbers but didn’t get a chance at a full-time job until he was 29. But he’s still playing at age 40 and finally getting some recognition.
Phillies reserve Matt Stairs got a well-deserved moment of glory when he hit a pinch-hit two-run homer in the eighth inning to give Philadelphia a 7-5 lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 4 of the NLCS. It was a big-time moment for a guy who went unappreciated for too long during his professional career and one who has been a favorite of mine.
In 1992, I joined a keeper league for the first time. One of the rules of the league was that each team had a five-man “Double-A” roster in which you picked players who had fewer than 50 at-bats over Double-A on their resume. Since I took over the worst team in the league, it was imperative that I did my best to beef up my “Double-A” roster.
I scoured over many players and one of the guys I kicked the tires on was Matt Stairs. In 1991, Stairs was the MVP of the Double-A Eastern League and he led the loop in average (.333) and slugging (.509). And as hard as it may be to believe now, he also had 23 stolen bases. If the steals caught you by surprise, you’ll love to know that he was a second baseman at this point in his career.
I decided to pass on Stairs (ended up with Chipper Jones, Jeromy Burnitz, Tyler Greene and Donovan Osborne) but I always kind of followed him. And he wasn’t an easy guy to keep up with, either. He spent most of 1992 in Triple-A, where he did okay, and finished the year in the majors. And then the odyssey began.
In 1993 he spent time in Japan. In 1994 he was back in Double-A, although this time with New Britain in the Red Sox’ system. After the Red Sox it was on to the A’s followed by the Cubs, Brewers, Pirates, Royals, Tigers, Blue Jays and now the Phillies.
It’s hard to feel too bad for a guy who has made over $14 million in his professional career, but I can’t help wondering how it might have played out for Stairs in a different universe.
He didn’t hit very much in 1992 at Triple-A and any chance the 5-foot-9 guy had of getting a fair shot seemed to vanish. He got three cups of coffee in the majors from 1992-1995 and in 126 at-bats he batted .246 but with 12 extra-base hits.
Stairs finally got his chance when he wound up in Oakland with Billy Beane. He tore things up at Triple-A Edmonton in 1996 before coming up to the A’s, where he posted a 127 OPS+ in 137 at-bats.
For the next three seasons, Stairs put up numbers that indicated that perhaps he should have gotten a shot earlier than he did. From 1997-1999 (his age 29-31 seasons) Stairs averaged a .282-30-94 line and in the first of those three seasons he totaled just 352 at-bats.
In Wednesday’s Washington Post there was an article on Stairs and a passage that referenced Bill James, who compared Stairs to other players on the basis of their average, on-base percentage and slugging. Here is a snippet of Chico Harlan’s article:
“What if baseball had been quicker to embrace the player with obvious shortcomings?
Here is what James discovered:
Stairs’s career numbers are essentially the same as Reggie Jackson’s (.262, .356, .490). All of his numbers trump those of Roger Maris. Other players with comparable numbers include Bobby Bonds, Frank Howard, Dwight Evans, Dale Murphy and Greg Luzinski. Nobody confuses those ballplayers with the ordinary.”
I’m not sure that the fact that Stairs’ numbers eclipse guys who played during the deadball 1960s like Maris and Howard is all that significant. I tried to do some comparisons to players from 1980 onwards.
In 1997, Stairs posted a 153 OPS+ as a 29-year old. I searched for players from age 28-30 that played 100 games in a season and had the same OPS+ number. Since 1980 there are five players who matched Stairs and his 153 mark. They are:
Mark Teixeira, Magglio Ordonez, Chipper Jones, Jason Giambi and Mo Vaughn.
That’s pretty good company. But Stairs only had 352 at-bats that season so it’s not the greatest comparison. So, I expanded it to the three seasons I mentioned above where he hit 91 home runs. I looked for the players who hit 90-92 homers over their age 29-31 seasons since 1980. That list included six players:
Pat Burrell, Vladimir Guerrero, Joe Carter, Chipper Jones, Jim Rice and Larry Walker.
Obviously, neither James’ nor my comparisons are very rigorous but they indicate that Stairs could have been a bigger contributor earlier in his career if he was just given the chance. The guys who did what Stairs did from age 29-31 were multi-time All-Stars, not guys who had a random fluke year or two.
Stairs has had 500 or more at-bats just twice in his 16 years in the majors. Yet he still has 254 home runs and 864 RBIs. It may not have been the magical career that he seemed destined for following his MVP season at Harrisburg in 1991, but it’s one that all but a handful of people would trade for in an instant.




