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The answer is a definite no. In fact, he may be a bargain, so go ahead and grab him. When Jack Zduriencik took over as the Mariners' GM he inherited a team that had one of the worst defensive outfields in the game. He jettisoned the statuesque (in a bad way) Raul Ibanez and inserted Franklin Gutierrez and Endy Chavez. This was a huge upgrade to the outfield defense, one far bigger than might be recognized and Washburn is a prime beneficiary. Here are some pertinent stats for Washburn:
I left the last cell blank for a reason. What we have here is a fly ball pitcher with a very consistent skill set. The BABIPs are below average because of the fly ball rates. His BABIP is way down in 2009, partly because of luck, of course, but also partly due to the Mariners' Defensive Efficiency, which is up to .697 from .682, which was one of the worst figures in the AL. Simply put, Jack replaced one of the worst outfielders in the game and other assorted outfield flotsam with two of the best. Here are the defensive statistics of Franklin Gutierrez and Endy Chavez: Endy Chavez:
Chavez has been a defensive machine. The RAR column is the Runs Above Replacement added from his defense. Chavez has been worth about two wins a year just on defense alone and those numbers were generated in part time play. Franklin Gutierrez:
Given the number of games played, Gutierrez is one of the best fielding outfielders in the game, and is probably two wins better than replacement if not more on a going forward basis. It appears at first glance that Washburn should benefit going forward from the much improved defense generally, judging by the defensive efficiency, and from a vastly improved outfield defense. Given the number of balls he lets into play and his consistent BABIPs on the prior Mariners' teams, he will not put up a .249 BABIP, but one in the .280 range is well within expectation, and perhaps even into the .270s. Just look at Chris Young for the upside of what a pitcher can do when conditions are favorable. Why did I leave the FIP field blank? Because FIP may not be the best indicator for situations like his. His skills have not changed, so we would not expect a change in FIP. But his defense has changed, and significantly for the better. Baseball Prospectus' translated statistics currently rate Washburn with a 3.93 ERA for the rest of the season. It remains to be seen whether the current alignment will remain around the diamond, especially with their offensive weaknesses, and, admittedly this analysis is a little "fast and loose," but what we are after here is speculation not precision. In that respect, Washburn appears to be a fine speculation. Trackback(0)
Comments (4)
  written by Troy Patterson, April 30, 2009
But he is not the same pitcher he has been the last 5-6 bad years. His K/9 has been that of his solid years, but will it actually hold up? If it drops back to 4.5-5 he will crash back to the mid 4 ERA.
Will the defense help? Of course, but he still is going to struggle if he can't hold the K/9 and a 4.5 ERA with low strikeouts isn't worth anything.
written by patrick dicaprio, April 30, 2009
my whole point is that it does not depend on it! he is the exact same pitcher as he always was, but with a better defense. that alone can make the difference.
written by TroyPatterson, April 29, 2009
It depends if you believe the return to a 6 in his K/9. His best seasons with the Angels were when he had a K/9 near 6 and a resulting K/BB near 2.5. That K/9 has dropped since then and been around 4-5 the past 6 years.
He has always maintained a low HR/FB by pitching in the big parks of the AL West, so you have to worry if he pitches to many out of league games. Also when you look at his game data 9 of his 17 strikeouts came in one game against the Rays who are struggling to make contact right now. I don't think the K/9 is real and when he drops back to a 4-5 rate he will be a 4.50 or greater ERA again and be back on the wire.
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Tags: mariners seatlle mariners jarrod washburn franklin gutierrez endy chavez raul ibanez BABIp defensviev efficiency zduriencik baseball prospectus
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