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09
Apr
2009
Campbell's All-Bust Team PDF  | Print |  E-mail
Behind The Plate Blog
Written by Ryan Campbell   
For the record, I am absolutely copying my colleague John Dorhauer’s idea but the article he wrote provided for some good discussion and I wanted to get in on the fun.
 
C – Bengie Molina: He is another year older and just like last year the Giants' offense will not have a lot of punch. Case in point, Molina (and his 16 dingers) was their clean-up hitter. He may also lose some games to Pablo Sandoval and with a lack of a DH in the NL, that means he will be on the bench.
 
1B – Derrek Lee: I have already outlined what I think of Derrek Lee in a previous article, so feel free to check it out. Just do yourself a favor; pick Joey Votto and call it a day.
 
2B – Mark DeRosa: He could be considered at a few positions but I will stick him at second base. Last year he outperformed his career highs by 25 runs, 8 runs, and 13 RBI. Can you say anomaly? He also will no longer be able to feast on the weak pitching staffs of the Pirates and Reds, or play half his games in the friendly confines of Wrigley Field, which does not get the reputation it deserves as a hitter’s park.
 
3B – Ryan Zimmerman: I hate to pile on because his career path has taken an unfortunate nose dive, but I cannot think of any reason to draft him ahead the likes of Adrian Beltre or Jorge Cantu. His walk rate, SLG, and OPS have declined steadily since his rookie year and in that anemic Nationals offence, I do not see his numbers improving much. 
 
SS – Miguel Tejada: Wow, speaking of declines. Take a gander at Tejada’s RBI totals over the past three years: 100, 81, 66. How about OPS: .878, .799, .729. His 13 home runs last year are absolutely unacceptable for a right-handed bat in Minute Maid Park.
 
OF – Josh Hamilton: Do not get me wrong, Josh Hamilton will have a fine season, just not a top 15 pick season. I expect a stint on the DL and the Rangers will miss Milton Bradley’s stick more than they think.
 
OF – Vernon Wells: Two words and a number with a decimal place: Andruw Jones 2.0.
 
OF – Nelson Cruz: While this bandwagon seems to have cooled off recently, it still boggles my mind that everyone fell in love with a 29 year old because he strung together 115 good AB’s last year. He proved in two previous stints with the Rangers that he could not handle major league pitching, with a batting average in the .230 range. I know I am beating a dead horse but I would like to demonstrate how insignificant of a sample size his 2008 major league campaign was. If you turn even only three of his home runs into outs, his average drops 30 points and his SLG drops by over 100 points. I have the utmost respect for Jon Daniels but if he thinks Cruz is going to replace Bradley he is in for an ugly surprise.
 
SP – Tim Lincecum: 1.63. That is how much on average how much the ERA’s of Fausto Carmona, Justin Verlander, and Gustavo Chacin increased the year after they broke the 200 IP barrier for the first time. 
 
SP – Cole Hamels: See above and he has already experienced arm troubles in Spring Training.
 
RP – Kevin Gregg: He secured the closer’s job in Chicago with a fantastic spring. However, Carlos Marmol will be getting the save opportunities late in the season, when fantasy playoffs are under way.
 
RP – Troy Percival: Among the relievers returning to this year’s squad, he had the worst ERA on the 2008 Rays. 9 home runs allowed and 27 walks in 45.2 innings is not going to get the job done, especially with the bevy of talented relievers at Tampa Bay’s disposal. 
 
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written by RyanCampbell, April 10, 2009
He does lose some credibility by throwing Gallardo on that list for sure. However, the rest of the list is pretty substantial. I am not saying this will 100% happen to Lincecum, but the risk is there, and for this reason there is no way as I am taking him as the top pitcher in the draft. You can take him and I'll have Santana or Brandon Webb.
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written by TroyPatterson, April 10, 2009
I don't think Verlander was that good. Even in a lucky 2007 season he was no where near the skills of a Lincecum. 2007 his strikeouts jumped and his K/BB was above average, but it appears he couldn't maintain that level and went back to career levels. Hence his stats suffered, but they were similar to years before and not necessarily related to his first 200 IP.

I am not a fan of the Verducci effect. His basis of success is skewed and he claimed it was a strong theory in 2008, but many of his projected players were injured in places that had nothing to do with arm fatigue. Does the Verducci theory predict a torn ACL in Gallardo or a hip injury to Carmona? Nope.
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written by RyanCampbell, April 10, 2009
Thanks for the recognition Big O!!
But punched in the head, I think that is a little harsh! My address defintely won't be public information after that threat!
Lincecum is gonna have a great career but I don't think he should be the first picture picked in the draft this year.
Spot on with Hamels though, good pitcher when he is playing, but I see some injury problems on the horizon.
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written by kevinorris, April 10, 2009
http://www.blogtalkradio.com/s...all-Review

We covered this article a little bit today on the show around the 35-40 minute mark.
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written by RyanCampbell, April 10, 2009
Fair enough Derek. I am not one to shy away from a disagreement.
However, last year, Cruz had a 1.123 OPS in AAA. This translated well into the big leagues where he had a 1.030 OPS.
In 2007 he combined a 1.125 OPS in AAA with a .671 OPS with Texas. So his AAA play does not necessarily translate to ML sucess. MLEs be damned! haha.
I am certainly not saying he is a terrible player, but I am skeptical and do believe he is overvalued. I would much rather have guy like Ethier or Jackson.
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written by RyanCampbell, April 10, 2009
I can see where you are coming from with regards to Chacin and Carmona, but I don't think in the middle of the 2007 season you would be saying that Verlander wasn't any good. However, the list of players who this has happened to is too long to ignore. I do not remember what the stat was, but there was an article I read last year about pitchers who I believe it was broke 200 IP in their rookie campaigns... and Freddy Garcia was the only one to have even a reasonable career.
For more info I would redirect you to this article by Tom Verducci. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c...index.html
For the record, I wrote my article last week before this was released.
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written by Derek Carty, April 10, 2009
I think people are more excited about Cruz's 37 HR and 24 SB in 383 Triple-A at-bats last year. In addition, he has a 13% HR/FB and 44% FB% in the majors, so he clearly has talent and didn't just suck wind in the Bigs. His MLEs are very good and Marcels is the only major projection system to project his BA below .270 (and Marcels is the most likely to be wrong since it doesn't take minor league performance into consideration). Sorry, Ryan, gotta disagree with you here. Cruz is in for a big year.
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written by TroyPatterson, April 09, 2009
The difference between Lincecum and those three pitchers is that Lincecum is actually good. The other three regressed to the mean. It had nothing to do with arm fatigue or injury. I worry about Lincecums arm a bit, but I would never compar him to any of those guys.

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