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We all love trying to buy low and sell high. It is one of the most gratifying aspects of fantasy baseball to pull off a trade like that and watch as the players involved revert to expected performance levels soon thereafter. However, every year there are always those players that stay high or remain low. These are the types of players who sometimes end up being referred to as breakouts or busts. Instead of discussing the same tired buy low and sell high players, let us instead take a look at some of the players not to sell high or buy low on. Current Yahoo! ranking is in parentheses. Don't Sell High Nelson Cruz (29)- Those who avoided him because they labeled him that mythical Quadruple-A hitter are likely kicking themselves now. All he needed was an extended chance at the major league level to prove that he could perform the way he has in the minors. Sure, he strikes out a lot, but he offsets that with a ton of power, as his .281 isolated slugging percentage and 23.1% HR/FB ratio attests. A .318 BABIP means that he may even be capable of maintaining his current .294 average. If that is not enough, he has even stolen eight bases in nine tries, and it's no fluke as he stole 24 bases in Triple-A in 2008 in just 448 plate appearances. One of my bold pre-season predictions was that he would go 35/15. That may have even been shooting low as he is on pace to go 44/29. Shin-Soo Choo (74)- Choo was a one time top prospect, but injuries and poor minor league performances made us forget his talent. He is still striking out at an above average pace and has not shown as much power as he did last year, but he is walking a ton (15.6% walk rate) and although his .367 BABIP is quite high, he may in fact have the ability to maintain such an inflated rate given his .368 career mark. He has also stolen six bases without being caught and back in 2006, he actually stole 26 bases in 30 tries in just 427 plate appearances, so he clearly has the speed to keep it up. He should flirt with a 20/20 season, while posting good RBI and Run numbers in the middle of a strong Indians lineup. Denard Span (94)- Gabriel Lundeen's boy toy, Span is proving that last year's breakout was no fluke. No, I cannot explain what suddenly clicked to transform him into such a solid hitter after being quite a disappointment prior to 2008, but I can tell you that his skills improvement supports a new talent level. He has shown an above average walk rate and good contact skills, while maintaining the power boost of last year that could allow him to push 10 home runs. At 9 steals in 12 attempts, he should reach the 30 steal plateau, while posting a good average and an excellent run total. He could come close to what Shane Victorino tallied in 2008, with less home runs. Justin Verlander (54)- I hate flip-flopping on certain pitchers every year, but when the skill set changes along with other factors, I don't mind changing my tune. Verlander's fastball velocity is suddenly the highest it has been in a full-season, and he is rightfully throwing the pitch a little more often than in the past, at the expense of his change-up. This velocity spike surely is at least partially responsible for the dramatic jump in strikeout rate to a ridiculous 12.1. Combine that with the best walk rate of his career and you realize that Verlander is on his way to the best season of his career, and one that is actually supported by his skills, unlike in years past. Josh Johnson (66)- The shoulder problem two weeks ago is definitely a scare and there will be concerns about his ability to make it through the season all year. However, that is really my only gripe. Amazingly, Johnson's average fastball velocity has risen for a fourth straight year and jumped a cool 1.4 miles per hour over last year to sit at 94.9. Surprisingly, that hasn't led to an increase in strikeout rate, but it does give one hope that he could nudge it over 8.0 at some point. The other good news is that he has improved his control once again this year, as his walk rate sits at a very strong 2.1. Most exciting, however, might be the jump in ground ball rate to nearly 55% this year. If he could actually sustain a 50%+ ground ball rate, he would possess one of the best skill sets in baseball. Erik Bedard (107)- Bedard's 2008 was ruined by injuries and questions arose about how much of his deteriorating skills related to the injuries and how much was just regression after his fantastic 2007 season. Though his skills are not quite at 2007 levels, they are much improved over last year. His walk rate so far is the best of his career, while his strikeout rate only trails the 10.9 mark he posted in 2007. I do wonder where the ground balls went though, as he induced rates of 49% and 48% in 2007 and 2008, respectively, but only 40% last year and is at just 41% this year. Looking at his PitchFX data, it appears that the movement on both his fastball and curveball has returned to 2007 levels, which is a great sign that he has fully regained the stuff that led to his huge breakout. Bedard is injury prone and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him break down at any moment, but his performance thus far is real. Don't Buy Low Matt Holliday (156)- The big question this off-season was how much the move away from Coors Field would hurt Holliday’s production. The facts said that his performance would dip, possibly substantially; however, some argued that Holliday could simply hit anywhere. With just a .771 OPS, six home runs and two stolen bases, he has been a big disappointment thus far. This really should not have been a huge surprise though. Over the last three years, Coors Field has inflated home runs to right-handed hitters by a whopping 27%. On the other hand, McAfee Coliseum, the home of the Athletics, has reduced right-handed home runs by 22%. That is an enormous disparity between parks and one that should convince you that Holliday’s home run power may not rebound to historical levels. When you combine this with the fact that the Athletics organization does not typically steal many bases, expecting Holliday to come anywhere near his 28 thefts in 2008 would be overly optimistic. Unless the Holliday owner in your league is willing to give him away at a sizeable discount, it is probably not worth pursuing him. Rafael Furcal (697)- Furcal suffered from major back issues last year, which eventually cut his season short when he elected to have surgery. The question was how healthy he would be this year and whether the surgery corrected the problems, since back injuries are notorious for affecting a hitter’s offensive production. So far this year, Furcal has done nothing to dispel this idea, as his OPS is a lowly .602. He has hit for little power (.064 isolated slugging percentage) and has only attempted six steals. To make matters worse, he is striking out at the highest rate since 2002. This could very well be a case in which Furcal is not simply off to a slow start, but one where your performance expectations for the rest of his career might have to be ratcheted down. Garrett Atkins (828)- If you want to see a perfect illustration of declining trends, look no further than Atkins. His OPS has slid each season from .965 in 2006 to his current .565, his isolated slugging percentage has declined from .228 to .102 over that same period and his home run per fly ball ratio has dropped from 13.2% to just 6.1%. With the Rockies very likely to be out of playoff contention come the trade deadline, there is a very real possibility that Atkins is traded, which would further reduce Atkins’ already deteriorating fantasy value. Yes, the low .207 BABIP means his batting average will rise from his sub-Mendoza .190 level, but there is something seriously wrong with Atkins and his future production will likely not match his name value. Francisco Liriano (1230)- After another beating, his ERA stands at a ghastly 6.42. Though his strikeout rate is respectable at 7.7, it is still nowhere near the 10.7 he posted in 2006. There are several major problems with Liriano right now. First off, his control, something that had been good in the past, has been awful so far this year as his walk rate stands at 4.1, which is a jump from last year's below average rate of 3.8. Given the poor control last year, it is difficult to imagine him improving materially. Next, though his fastball velocity is up slightly from last year, it still pales in comparison to his pre-TJ Surgery days. He is throwing just 91.5 miles per hour now, compared to 94.7 in his heyday. That is an enormous difference and would affect any pitcher's effectiveness. Possibly most troubling, however, is the complete loss of his ability to induce ground balls. In 2006, he got a grounder 55% of the time. This year he is only getting them 36% of the time. Even last season his ground ball rate was down at 42%, so it is clear that his arm problems have led to more than just a loss of velocity. He is now simply a fly ball pitcher with poor control and a pretty good strikeout rate. I just do not see the upside here anymore as there is too much he needs to improve upon right now. Scott Kazmir (1242)- It all started last year when his walk rate increased for the second straight season and his strikeout rate dipped below 10.0 for the first time since 2005. Those two factors combined with a big spike in fly ball rate, plus a mysterious drop in slider usage, all served to raise a red flag. This year everything fell apart all at once; a strikeout rate down to just 6.9, a terrible walk rate all the way up at 5.7 and an average fastball velocity below 90.0 miles per hour at just 89.6, which is a full two miles per hour less than last season. Kazmir is on the DL with a supposed quad strain caused by so-called poor mechanics. I cannot believe that it is simply poor mechanics that has contributed to this disaster of a season. Something else is wrong and it would be nice if the Rays got some shoulder/elbow tests done just to make sure there is nothing serious going on. It sure seems like there is, so until we know for sure what the deal is, I would stay far away. Chris Young (754)- Let me say first that I have never been a fan. It has been my opinion that Young has benefited greatly from good fortune, whether it be from a low BABIP or unsustainable HR/FB ratio, even with PETCO helping in that area. This year he is once again enjoying a better than league average BABIP and HR/FB ratio, but the skills have eroded. His strikeout rate is down to just 7.0, after three straight years in the low-to-mid 8.0's, while his control remains below average as he is walking four batters per nine. As usual, he continues to allow tons of fly balls, as one of the most extreme fly ball pitchers in baseball. The real concern is that he had elbow problems during the spring, and now his average fastball velocity is down to just 85.9 miles per hour, a drop from last year's 87.2 mark. Amazingly, his velocity has now declined for five straight years! Without continued great luck, an average skill set was eventually going to be reflected in his ERA and WHIP. Trackback(0)
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Tags: buy low sell high nelson cruz shin-soo choo denard span justin verlander josh johnson erik bedard matt holliday rafael furcal garrett atkins francisco liriano scott kazmir chris young
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