06
Feb
2010
Breaking Down the Kovalchuk Trade PDF  | Print |  E-mail
Fantasy Hockey Blog
Written by Ray Calder HockeyObserver.com   
altOn Thursday evening the Atlanta Thrashers and New Jersey Devils made a trade that will alter the fortunes of both franchises in the short and long term. Lets have a look at the fantasy implications for both teams;

New Jersey acquires LW Ilya Kovalchuk, and D Anssi Salmela from Atlanta in exchange for RW Niclas Bergfors, D Johnny Oduya, LW Patrice Cormier, and the New Jersey 1st round draft pick in the 2010 Entry Draft. The teams also agreed to swap 2nd round draft picks in the 2010 Entry Draft. 

A player by player look at the principals;

Ilya Kovalchuk - He's an elite level, gambreaking talent and one of the few guys in the NHL that you'd buy a ticket just to see when he comes to the arena near you. He's entering his peak (still just 26 years of age) production years. Always a threat to score 50 goals in a season, he currently is tied for 5th in the NHL with 31. He possesses just about everything you want in a franchise player. He has a ridiculous combination of size (6-1, 230) and speed, has excellent hands, competes hard, and has a rocket for a shot that he'll let fly from anywhere. He's going to give one of the Devils top two lines a real shot in the arm and should add to the team's powerplay success as well. He becomes an Unrestricted Free Agent this coming July 1 having already turned down something on the order of 10-11 million dollars a season on a long term deal.

Anssi Salmela - Salmela was originally Devils property signing as a European Free Agent in 2008 . The Devils swapped him to Atlanta for D Niclas Havelid in March of 2009. They know the player obviously and are comfortable bringing him back.  He's 25 years old and on this contending team he'll slot in as a depth guy stepping in when injuries hit. He's a puckmover and very creative when he doesn't try to do too much. He still has difficulty with his defensive zone responsibilities and until that changes he's going to have trouble cracking any team's top four blueliners. 

Niclas Bergfors- Along with the player they draft with the Devils 2010 first round draft choice, this is the key piece in this trade for the Thrashers. He's a product of the 2005 Entry draft and entered this season with a very strong pedigree in the American Hockey League but only 9 games of NHL experience. The Swedish born 22 year old (will turn 23 in early March) is a gritty competitor with enough skill to be an annual 25-30 goal man and capable of amassing 60-65 points at his peak. His skillset makes him capable of being a solid second line winger. He's a fine player and at an early point this season looked like he could push for the Calder Trophy (Rookie of the Year). Since that time he has cooled substantially and leaves the Devils having scored 27 points in 54 games. This is a very good young player, but he's not a franchise talent like a Kovalchuk and he never will be. 

Johnny Oduya - Swedish born defenseman . He's a fine defender and the kind of guy that every team would like to have as their 3/4 blueliner. The problem is that he's neither a big offensive producer or a physical shutdown type of player. He's smart positionally , will make the safe play, and is very active/competitive in his own end. For his career he's produced a per 82 game line of 5-18-23 (goals, assists, points). At 28 years of age he's probably about as good as he'll ever be. He fits on the Thrasher blueline (already a solid group) there is simply no way you can call him a difference maker.

Patrice Cormier - He's the name hockey fans all got to know this year for the wrong reasons. While playing at Rouyn- Noranda (QMJHL) he threw as bad an elbow as you'll ever see in a hockey rink in the direction of Quebec Ramparts defenseman Mikael Tam. Tam was badly injured on the play suffering a broken jaw, several broken teeth, and a concussion and left the ice on a stretcher. The Quebec League acted quickly and suspended Cormier for the remainder of this regular season and playoffs. As a prospect Cormier has plenty of the tools that teams covet in a power winger. He has size, strength, and the willingness to take any spot on the ice surface as his own. He's a very good, strong skater, competes hard, and uses a very heavy shot to score. The thing that will hold him back is a poor me first, immature attitude. The hit on Tam was not the first incident of his young career and while Devils GM Lou Lamoriello came out in support of the young man after the incident - he was certainly more than willing to part with a player he picked in the second round of the 2008 Entry Draft.

Conclusion: This trade obviously makes the Devils much better right now. Already with a strong team defense (they're currently 1st in the NHL) they add a player who was tied for 5th in the league with 31 goals at the time of the trade. Kovalchuk goes from a team that was likely going to miss the playoffs to one solidly in them and now is very dangerous. He'll upgrade one of the Devils top two lines and will also take up residence running the point on the New Jersey 11th ranked powerplay. It's also quite likely that he'll finish the season strong knowing he is facing Unrestricted Free Agency and another big payday this coming July 1. He's likely just  a rental for the Devils but has every incentive to be an extremely productive one. Salmela again will be a depth defenseman for the Devils. 

This trade shakes up the Thrashers in a much more significant way. It may very well end up being the deal we look back on that finished the Thrashers franchise in Atlanta. Bergfors will likely become the right winger on the second line and hopefully can pull himself out of his worst scoring funk as a pro (just 1 point since the calendar flipped January 1). He'll get every opportunity to succeed with the Thrashers, but for now is no more than a bench option and "watch list" guy in fantasy/roto. Johnny Oduya is not fantasy relevant at this point with just the 4 points (2 goals, 2 assists) in 40 games. Cormier is someone Keeper/Dynasty leaguers should watch when he resumes his career next season likely in the American Hockey League. If he can get his head together he still has plenty of time to become the second line power forward that he was drafted to be. 
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