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If you are unfamiliar with the RULES for the is contest, you can get caught up to speed HERE. * Spring Training scores do not count for the regular season. This is to get everyone ready for a long season of writing. None of the articles have been or will be modified for the staff of FantasyPros911.com. Spring Training Week One Question:Why Hanley Ramirez is Fantasy Baseball’s number one pick?Boris from Downunder , the away team, will take the con side to this debate You have the number one pick. Checking the ever popular ADP’s, you are armed with the knowledege that the guy most often being picked to lead off drafts is the Dominican dynamo, Hanley Ramirez. Do you blindly follow the crowd and pull the trigger on the HanRam at numero uno? I’m glad you asked, because I am here to tell you the answer is a resounding no! Being an inquisitive type, I’m sure you want to know how in Geoffrey Stein’s name could the ADP list have steered you wrong. Let’s start with the other contenders for the number one pick. In an ideal world, that would be Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols or David Wright. Pujols has had elbow surgery. Sure, his numbers last season were as pretty as Taylor Swift in a see-through sundress, but perennial grumpmeister Tony LaRussa has stated he is “unsure how Pujol’s surgically repaired elbow will react to the everyday workload of spring training”. Your first round pick has to minimise risk, so Albert has to step aside. Recent labrum surgery and a projected layoff of 6-9 weeks means A-Rod is also taken out of consideration. That leaves David Wright. Lets’ talk position scarcity shall we? “Ooh yes please!” I hear you scream as one. With A-Rod missing in inaction, one man stands as an island in a sea of tiers. That man is David Wright. While Hanley has Jose Reyes to accompany him atop the rankings, Wright has an ocean between himself and fantasy up-and-comer Evan Longoria, or if you prefer your 3B man not to whiff more than 150 times, Aramis Ramirez. The man to draft at number one is therefore D-Wright, not HanRam, A-Rod or A-Pu (A-jol?). There is more… Wright has, and should continue to top Ramirez in batting average. Home run numbers should also continue to be in Wright’s favour, by a small margin. Wright has had a massive lead over Ramirez in RBI’s (124 to 67 last year), however with Hanley on the move to number three in the lineup, he should make up some ground – but not enough to catch Wright. The move from the leadoff spot will also mean a loss in runs scored for Ramirez, giving the edge to Wright. Things are looking pretty good for my man David Wright! You do of course have to give the edge to Ramirez in steals, but the move down the order should stifle his potential to put up a big advantage in this category. To recap, I see Wright winning four of the five categories. Finally, do you believe in the magic of the 27th year? Well, guess who will turn 27 this year? If you answered David Wright, take five dollars out of your boss’ petty cash tin and take the rest of the day off, because you are a smart cookie. The number one pick is clear. Can the HanRam and make the Wright choice. Before you vote read Eric Gehman's pro side  Loading Poll...Trackback(0)
Comments (12)
  written by Boris From Downunder, March 19, 2009
OK, I vehemently disagree with this. I will use your Hanley/Atkins combo as an example. Using Mike Podhorzer's projections, a Hanley/Atkins combo pans out as follows. Atkins is the 6th ranked 3B man, right before Chipper Jones at 7th. Atkins value is $11.04. The Hanley/Atkins combo deal is therefore worth $37.35 + $11.04 for a total of $48.39. The 6th ranked shortstop is Jhonny Peralta who has a value of $12.50. The Wright/Peralta combo comes out on top at $37.14 + $12.50 for a total of $49.64. If you take it down to say the 11th ranked 3B/SS, you have Edwin Encarnacion at $5.26 and Orlando Cabrera at $8.32. What about down at number 14? Here, we have Miguel Tejada ($6.30) VS Mike Lowell ($2.05). What we are seeing here is that shortstop IS actually deeper than 3B, and value can be found with shortstops later in the draft.
written by Nathan, March 19, 2009
I don't have the guide you speak of in front of me, but what are the dollar values of comparable players at those positions later on? My point is that you end up with a better statistical combo if you take Hanley and Atkins than Wright and Tulo. Why the large gap from the 1st to the 2nd player at the position is such a big deal to you makes no sense to me, since the top 10 (at least) guys from each position will be rostered and the goal is the best distribution of your assets (picks).
written by Boris From Downunder, March 19, 2009
Hi Nathan, thanks for reading. Regarding position scarcity, if you take Mike Podhorzer's dollar values as an example, currently he has Hanley Ramirez at $37.35 with Jose Reyes at a higher value of $39.55. You can argue for either player, however it is clear that the difference in value between the first and second shortstop is minimal. In regard to third base, Mike has David Wright at $37.14 - his next ranked 3B man is Alex Rodriguez at $19.12. Right there is the massive gap in value I am talking about. If you pick Wright, you have a big leg up on the competition in regard to value.
written by Nathan, March 19, 2009
Sorry, when I say "you pick him" I mean, "why he's considered a top pick," not "why you personally tout him."
written by Nathan, March 19, 2009
Using position scarcity as an argument for Wright over Ramirez is awfully flawed, in my eyes, since there are far more solid options at 3B than at short. If you use your 1 and your 40 picks (10-team league) on a SS/3B combo, you can have a Hanley/ARam combo or a Wright/....Drew? Jeter? combo. Move farther down and you're looking at Atkins v. Tulo or Gordon v. Peralta, comparisons where the third-baseman obviously wins.
Secondly, Wright's steals dropped dramatically last year, and that's one of the big reasons you pick him. If he steals 30 like he has, he's a top-5 pick (although still not #1 in my eyes). If he steals 15 like he did last year, he's top-10, but certainly not #1 overall.
written by a guest, March 17, 2009
Heh - you just told Mr. Weiner to bring some meat to his suggestions.
No problems if you don't like the style, however some constructive criticism such as that by Patrick would be more helpful. Thanks for reading anyway!
written by a guest, March 17, 2009
How about some reasons ! Man, that is real generic. How about this being an issue ?
"Sure, his numbers last season were as pretty as Taylor Swift in a see-through sundress." That could be disturbing ! These guys are laying it out the line. Bring some meat to your comments.
written by Boris From Downunder, March 16, 2009
Thanks Patrick, I appreciate the comment and advice.
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