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31
Jan
2009
Battle for the Cubs' Fifth Spot PDF  | Print |  E-mail
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Chris Mulligan's Pitch or Ditch
Written by Christopher Mulligan   
The Chicago Cubs come into 2009 with a well above average starting staff even with the fifth spot in the rotation still unknown.  Carlos Zambrano, still the team's ace, has had less than stellar fantasy seasons the last few years but certainly has the ability to regain his status as a fantasy ace.  Ryan Dempster shocked the world in '08 and is working hard to show the world that last year was no fluke.  Ted Lilly put up another near 200 K season and won 17 games in '08 and has been a dependable pitcher since coming to Chicago.  Rich Harden, while certainly prone to injury has ace-like stuff and a full season from him may earn him ace status. The big question for the Cubs this year is the question of who will fill the fifth spot in the starting rotation.  With the bottom falling out of the proposed deal for Jake Peavy and the departure of Jason Marquis to Colorado the Cubs will have an open competition in Spring Training for the starting job.  The competition will be between Sean Marshall, Jeff Samardzija, Chad Gaudin, and recently acquired Aaron Heilman.  At this point it's difficult to determine which one has the edge but I will attempt to give some insight.

Sean Marshall- Marshall showed a great deal of improvement in 2008.  As a reliever and spot-starter he opened the eyes of a lot of people and planted the thought in their heads that he could be a very valuable pitcher.  Marshall raised his K/9 from 5.84 in '07 to 7.99 in '08.  He showed an ability to keep hitters off balance with a decent fastball and his big hook of a curve ball.  Other statistical improvements were a lower BAA in '08 than '07, from .269 to .246.  His LOB% also made a solid jump from 72.9 in '07 to 79.3 in '08.  A relatively low GB% in '08 went against his career numbers so add an expected return to very good GB% numbers in '09 to his value.  The coveted Marshall doesn't look to be going to another team any time soon.

Jeff Samardzija- Although The Shark pitches for the Cubs he's probably still the best wide receiver in Chicago.  Then again, that's not saying much.  As much as Chicagoans would like to see him in a Bears uniform, I think he picked the right sport.  The hype seems to be appropriate for Samardzija.  The tall powerhouse right-hander has an over-powering fastball in the 97 MPH range, occasionally reaching 99 MPH.  He also sports a power split-finger pitch which gets many swings and misses.  He had 25 K in 27 IP last year and opponents only managed a .235 BA against him.  He also did not allow a home run in his 27 IP.  As most young pitchers he has trouble with the walks but he seems to be working hard to improve on them.  He is the future of the Cubs rotation but does the future start this year?

Chad Gaudin- Cubs GM Jim Hendry threw Gaudin's name into the ring for the competition, which is the sole reason I'm discussing him.  Gaudin did little to impress after being traded to the Cubs halfway through the '08 season.  He spent a good amount of time on the shelf with a bad back after supposedly falling into a dumpster.  When he did pitch, it wasn't with much success.  In relief duty Gaudin was basically useless.  He continually folded in crucial situations and did fare much better in mop up duty either.  His big problem was the home run ball as he finished '08 with a 1.10 HR/9...ugly.

Aaron Heilman- Coming off an excellent 2007 season the Mets had high hopes for Heilman in 2008.  He performed well for most of the season until melting down the stretch.  He ended '08 with a ridiculously high walk rate of 5.45 BB/9. but had a 9.47 K/9.  Heilman was groomed to be a starter but filled a need for the Mets in the bullpen.  There is of course the elbow issues with Heilman as well which place a big question mark on him in '09.  The Chicago area native and Notre Dame grad is excited to pitch for the home town Cubs and we should see the best of him in '09.  There's no doubt that he has great stuff and has the potential to be a solid starter in the future.

Analysis and Prediction

First let me start out by completely ruling out Gaudin as the fifth starter.  As good as he was at times starting for the A's in '07 he just doesn't have the ability of the other three guys that he's competing against.  He may even pitch his way off the team by the middle of the season if he doesn't prove that he can pitch without constantly serving up meatballs. 

The competition will come down to Marshall, Samardzija, and Heilman.  Marshall will no doubt be a full-time starter in the very near future but it will be in '09.  The Cubs lone lefty in the bullpen is Neal Cotts and they will need Marshall as the second lefty.  They also will need Marshall to continue his role as spot-starter to fill in when Harden eventually gets hurt and to spell Zambrano is necessary.  Like I said earlier, Samardzija is the future but is still learning how to pitch in the majors. He also needs to develop a third pitch to his arsenal, preferably something off-speed.  Lou Pinella also loves having his power arm coming out of the pen and I believe he'll start immediately this year.  That leaves us with Aaron Heilman.  For the reasons mentioned above I believe that Heilman will ultimately be given the first crack at the fifth starter spot.  I think that it's time to see what he can do as a starter.  I know that Pinella will be impressed with his stuff and with he preferences for Marshall and Samardzija to come out of the bullpen, Heilman will be the Cubs fifth starter.

This is a tough call to make and certainly open for debate and subject to competition.  Whatever way the Cubs go, things are looking good when it comes to their options.

Who do you believe will win the job?  How do you feel about Marshall, Samardzija, and Heilman as long-term starters?  In your opinion, who has the most fantasy value as a starter?

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Hey,there sizzle chest!
written by Kyle Krause, February 06, 2009
Chris,chris, are you trying to make me feel funny in the pants? Don't spit up my ass and tell me it's raining, tough guy. Why, you're angering me--I outta split your f**cking nuts from your head to the back of your ass!
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written by lennymelnick, February 01, 2009
You guys are on the right track here.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/
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written by ChristopherMulligan, February 01, 2009
Totally agree with you D Wrek. If it was up to me, Marshall would be the 5th starter. I think he would be a solid fantasy option too. Samardzija is going to be very good but needs more work. Heilman is still a big question mark.
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written by D Wrek, January 31, 2009
If I had to spend on only one guy, it would be Marshall. You touched on The Shark's control issues. I also would like to see another years growth first. Heilman is 30 now an hasnt been givin an opputunity to start in 3 seasons. Why? It seems like theirs a lack of trust there. That makes me nervous.
Marhsall doesnt have the control issues of the Shark and was pretty effective last season when givin the oppurtunity to start. So I would roll the dice with Marshall.

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