Greetings readers. Before I get to this week’s topic I wanted to begin with a big “Thank You” to all those readers who have been referred to this site via Facebook, and to all those who have voted for me in the past. Many of you have said you were not serious baseball fans but are gaining a new appreciation for America’s pastime now that I harass/encourage you into reading my articles each week. Well, in my opinion, that’s a win-win for everybody (except maybe for Boris) because Major League Baseball gains more fans, the Fantasypros911.com website gets more readers, and maybe, just maybe, I garner a few more votes in my quest to become a paid writer for this awesome site. So, thanks again. Now on to this week’s debate…

This week’s topic is a fairly straightforward debate on a single ballplayer and that player is Alfonso Soriano. Debaters have been assigned a pro or con stance on whether Mr. Soriano will turn around his season in the second half, and I’ve been given the “pro” side. Let’s first take a look at the numbers.

Now, for those of you who are new to reading laundry lists of statistics such as these, let me just say this set of data presents a somewhat alarming trend. Of course, Soriano’s statistics for 2009 represent just a half season of data, but extrapolated across a whole season, most of the counting stats (R, HR, RBI, SB) are still down from previous years. But really, this is not so surprising. At 33 years of age, Soriano’s no spring chicken. But he’s no ancient filly in the winter of his life ready to be put out to pasture either.

Why all the farm analogies, you ask? Well, I’m not quite sure, but let’s just split the difference and say Soriano is in the summer of his career as a major leaguer. Studies have shown that a hitter’s prime years are between 27 and 32 years of age and Soriano is on the wrong side of that hill. But with players like Jamie Moyer (age 46) still competing with kids half his age, age is by no means the deciding factor in evaluating a ballplayer’s worth. Talent is. So, let’s talk about Soriano’s talent.

Alfonso Soriano was once a 5 category fantasy baseball stud. (Facebookers: that means he contributed very well in the 5 hitting categories usually tallied in our funny little fantasy baseball game: HR, R, RBI, SB, and AVG. For the record, the most common pitching categories are: W, SV, ERA, WHIP, and K. Also, for the record, these 10 categories are often referred to as 5x5 Rotisserie. Now you know.) A 5-category stud is rare because it’s hard to find hitters who both hit for power and steal bases. And in the prime of his career, Soriano was a juggernaut, a power/speed threat who helped your fantasy team across the board, and was often drafted early for this reason.

Well, folks, its time to temper our expectations. Soriano is not the speedster he once was. He’s a slugger, a fastball hitter now hitting in the 6^th spot who is no longer the table-setting leadoff hitter we remember from the last decade, and that’s just fine. On a Chicago Cubs team primed for an offensive breakout with the return of third baseman Aramis Ramirez, Soriano is set to have a solid second half with his usual robust HR total. Only his runs should decrease somewhat due to his drop in the batting order, and that should be offset by his increase in RBI. Taking a look at his 1^st half/2^nd half stats from last year, the balance to his production before and after the all-star break bodes well for the rest of this year too. Take a look:

Even Soriano’s batting average is primed for a rebound when you consider that he has been more than unlucky on the balls he has managed to put in play. Soriano’s BABIP is at a piddling .263, as compared with his own 3 year average around .314 and a league average around .295. So, theoretically, that stat should regress toward the mean, meaning more hits, and so more R and RBI. (Facebookers, forgive me if I don’t try to explain BABIP to you. Half of the fantasy baseball nuts I know don’t seem to get it either, so really, you’re fine.) Add to all this the fact that Soriano is a career .279 hitter and the hard truth is you really don’t need to worry that he’ll tank your fantasy team in average. (Ahem, Adam Dunn.)

But if you don’t want to take my word for it, the latest ZiPS Update (a projection source cited by Fangraphs.com, my source for stats used in this article) projects Soriano to hit 28 HR, score 82 runs, and accumulate 89 RBI with 16 stolen bases for the season. Those are stats easily worth having on your fantasy squad, and frankly, the fact that Soriano is hitting below his career average (and the Cubs are stinking) actually makes him an ideal “Buy Low” candidate for savvy traders out there. So I say, go out and get him.

Ok now, one last thing. Soriano skeptics might tell you he’s playing hurt, has a bum knee, or some other such hogwash, and while he has stated his knee felt “sore” about a month ago, Soriano has also said he plans to play throughout the season, and is actually on pace for more AB than in 2007 or 2008. So, whatever he has going on is clearly not so debilitating that he can’t compete. And that’s perhaps the most important thing to know as a fantasy baseball owner.

To conclude, take a chance on Soriano, folks, just reduce your expectations a little. With just 7 SB so far this year, the 14-20 stolen bases he’s sure to grab are really just gravy when you consider he’s a sure bet for close to 30 HR. But in rotisserie leagues where steals are at a premium, that gravy is the tasty sort that heralds championships. So why not lock up this Soriano Surprise and enjoy your just desserts? I know I will.

Bon Appetite!

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