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21
Jan
2009
A Look at the Outfield Tiers using ADP Part II PDF  | Print |  E-mail
Roaming The Outfield
Written by Sean   
We continue our look at the outfield pool using tiers based on ADP.

Tier 4 – Seventh thru Tenth Rounds

Hunter Pence (80), Ryan Ludwick (84), Jermaine Dye (90), Chris Young (92), Vernon Wells (104), Jay Bruce (106), Torii Hunter (109), Johnny Damon (118), and Raul Ibanez (119)

These guys all look like quality players to me at first glance, but all have something that makes them drop down to the later rounds, “risk” or “doubt”.  Can they perform as high as you expect? Each one of these guys might or might not.

34 outfielders have been taken by the end Round 10.  Normally I like to minimize as much risk as possible in my drafts so hopefully  I was able to grab three guys in the first three tiers and didn’t take the risk from this fourth tier.

Tier 5 - Eleventh thru Fifteen Rounds

Andre Ethier (123), Eric Byrnes (127), Hideki Matsui (131), Brad Hawpe (136), Lastings Milledge (140), Xavier Nady (145), Nick Swisher (154), Milton Bradley (157), Jayson Werth (168), and Nelson Cruz (180)

10 more outfielders fall off the board.  We see young player potential in Cruz and Milledge, and aging veteran value in Bradley and Matsui. However, what I find even more interesting is that these are all players that are being touted this year as potential breakout and undervalued players that should be taken earlier by someone in your draft believing the hype.  After looking a little closer on Mockdraftcentral.com ADP results, here is the same list, but this time the number next to the player is the earliest overall pick they have been selected in a draft so far this off season.  

Ethier (87), Byrnes (103), Matsui (88), Hawpe (91), Milledge (113),  Nady (83), Swisher (117), Bradley (116), Werth (91) and Cruz (106)

What that means is fantasy owners are believing the hype and these players could all potentially be drafted before Round 10.  Whoever is left, becomes a nice value pick in the later rounds of your draft.

Tier 6 - Sixteenth thru Twenty-third Rounds

Jeremy Hermida (183), Pat Burrell (186), Denard Span (192), Adam Jones (194), Conor Jackson (199), Willy Taveras (206), Luke Scott (207), Justin Upton (211), Ryan Church (213), Adam Lind (218), David Murphy (219), Delmon Young (220), Andruw Jones (222), Juan Pierre (224), Matt LaPorta (234), Jack Cust (235), Coco Crisp (236), Jose Guillen (239), Cameron Maybin (240), Rick Ankiel (241), J.D. Drew (243), Jeff Francoeur (244), David DeJesus  (248), Carlos Gomez (249), Shin-Soo Choo (252), and Michael Cuddyer (259)

These guys are the ones considered in the bottom tier. They are the last outfielders (and potential utility players) being taken according to the ADP.  Are they really worth being drafted?  In some cases, I say yes.  In other instances, we need to pay more attention in the spring.  For example, there are four Minnesota Twins outfielders in this tier alone, obviously only three of them will be starting come spring.  Still, others you probably couldn’t pay me enough to draft. In any case, we need to figure out what area your team needs help in at this point in you draft.  If you need a power hitter, then Drew, Ankiel or Cust might be a great pick. If you need speed, maybe it's worth grabbing Taveras, Maybin or Pierre.  

Some quick items to note:

•    The San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants Outfielders are not represented by any player in the top 70 ADP

•    The Atlanta Braves, Chicago Cubs , Colorado Rockies, Pittsburgh Pirates, Seattle Mariners and  Washington Nationals only have one player in the Top 70 ADP.

•   As I am sure most of you are aware, this ADP list is getting quite dated after being less then a month old. I hope you still find the process as useful as I do for examining the player pool and  for setting up your own rankings.  If you want to see more updated tiers and rankings be sure to check out our draft guide in the premium section. 

In conclussion, I will have one more article next week to examine the pool of outfielders who didnt make the Top 70.    

If you missed the first two parts of this series you can find them easily here:

Lets start Roaming

Tiers using ADP Part I
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written by Jimmy Ray, January 22, 2009
Last season Nady was an example of finding gold late in the draft but I still would not take him that early. I really like more guys you have in tier 6. I think span will have a nice season, better value. If you get your HR's early, span will help in avg, sb and runs.
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written by SeanAgranov, January 21, 2009
There is always a few good value choices in the end. That is exactly why I wanted to show you guys this exercise. Plus its an easy way to learn the players.
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written by MikePodhorzer, January 21, 2009
If you couldn't tell by my Are You Crazy from last night's Roundtable show, I love Justin Upton at 211.

Also think Delmon at 220, Crisp at 236 and possibly Choo at 252 offer very good value in that 6th tier.
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written by big o, January 21, 2009
the gambler in me looks at tier 6 and anticipates finding some nice value that might round out my team.

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