The San Diego Padres have pleasantly surprised the baseball world during the first half of the 2010 season.  Currently they stand atop the NL West by three games with a National League best 57-39 record.  Their success hangs upon their team leading pitching staff (3.79 team xFIP) and defense (36.2 team UZR).  The Padres style of play certainly conforms well to the cavernous confines of Petco Field.

The anchor of the Padres pitching staff is their 22-year-old ace, Mat Latos.  The right-hander was called up to the Padres last July after dominating batters in both low-A and Double-A ball.  He finished the 2009 year with the Padres with mixed results (4W-5L, 50.2IP, 6.93 K/9, 4.09 BB/9, 4.62 ERA, 4.67 xFIP).  Although his stuff, especially his 94-95 MPH fastball, has never been in doubt, some questioned his mechanics, and whether he could consistently throw strikes.  In addition, his 31 GB% and 1.24 HR/9 substantiated his susceptibility to the gopher ball.

In 2010, Latos has improved both his command and control as his season totals indicate (11W-4L, 112.2IP, 8.47 K/9, 2.40 BB/9, 2.48 ERA, 3.51 xFIP).  So will Latos continue at his current pace?  His xFIP is a full point above his ERA.   His 84.2% strand rate (in 2009 65.8%) shows he has been fortunate.  On the bright side, Latos has batters hitting more ground balls in 2010 (47.5 GB%) and his HR/9 has improved dramatically (0.88 HR/9).  Yet his 9.3% HR/FB is probably not sustainable, especially away from home.  He did give up two home runs yesterday in Pittsburgh, albeit it was his first start since July 8.

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