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Jason Bay’s name has had limited exposure this offseason even with a move to the big pressures of a contender. He has some concerns with the trials of 2007 not far enough in the past, but how will Jason respond in his first full season in Boston and is he going unnoticed in drafts?
Health
Jason has had troubles with his shoulder in the past and has been on the DL twice for labrum injuries. He had surgery in 2004 and it didn’t affect his debut too much as he hit 26 homers in 411 AB’s. He continued to put up good power numbers until 2007 when he hit only .247/.327/.418. Jason never hit the DL that year, but his knee was bothering him from arthroscopic surgery and sapped his power. He held a similar contact rate, but his ISO dropped from .246 to .171. Jason seems to have put the injury behind him with a return to form in 2008 and with no offseason surgeries he should continue to be a solid contributor.
Hitting Components
Bay has a relatively high strikeout rate, but has always been a solid average guy based on his speed, running skills and hitting power/ability. His BABIP outside of 2007 has always been above .328. He has seen his BABIP decline each season as he ages, but at 30 he should have a few more seasons with an average over .280 as his BABIP holds near .330. Bay’s contact rate was at a career high last year as he dropped his K% to 23.7%. This is still not a great number, but he will need to stay in the low 20’s as his BABIP declines to maintain a solid average.
His 2007 season also included the lowest BB% of his career. His 2008 BB% was better, but still his lowest since his rookie year. His OBP has dropped year by year since 2005, excluding the large drop in 2007. With the Red Sox preaching patience and more time to learn the AL pitchers his walk rate should improve.
Until 2007 Jason had a HR/FB over 17% every year, but even with his return to 30 homers this year he hit only 15% of flyballs for homers. Fenway Park has a small factor of homer deflation for right-handed hitters, but he should replace those with plenty of doubles as it has one of the highest factors for doubles in the majors. Without injury Bay will finish with 27-30 homers in 2009.
Bay doesn’t have blazing speed, but has stolen at least 10 bases in 3 of the last 4 seasons. As he ages this will continue to fall and in Boston they don’t stress steals as a strategy. Don’t bet on 10 again from Bay, but a final steals total of 7-10 is a strong contribution.
Possible Improvements
Bay’s talents do not project well long term as his ability to maintain a strong BABIP will slip with age and unless he continues to lower his K% his average will fall. Other than a few less strikeouts there isn’t much more you can ask from Jason. Improving his OBP with a rise in BB% could add on some runs in a potent Red Sox lineup, but he is a strong bet for over 100 in runs and RBI’s.
Final Analysis
Jason Bay currently has an ADP of 34 and is in a virtual tie with Nick Markakis according to MDC’s current listings. Using FP911 projections Markakis is the pick for average, but Bay gets the nod at power. While Bay is not undervalued, there are a few outfielders going before him that arguably should be taken after him. Ichiro is a prime example; he is currently going at 26 according to the ADP.
If you’re drafting at the end of the third would you prefer to go with Bay(power), Markakis(average) or Ichiro(speed). |
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