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4th and 1 Roundtable At It Again PDF Print E-mail
Fantasy Football Blog
Written by Paul Greco   
Wednesday, 16 December 2009 17:55
The great cast of EXPERTS are at it again.  Discussing now how you should handle your playoff hopes.  Here is this weeks questions:
With fantasy football playoffs in full swing, what approach do you take when handling your starting lineup?  Are you the risk taker or do you play the players that got you there and why?


Hatty of HattyWaiverWireguru.Com says:

I am not much of a risk taker in the play-offs and tend to stick to my studs as they got me to the dance.  I do look for players that have been hot when setting my line-ups.  This week (week 15) Jamaal Charles has a great match up, Quinton Ganther has caught a bit of fire, Maurice Morris is the new starter, Fred Davis has been hot, Jermichael Finley is getting it done, and these types of players lead fantasy teams to championships.  I had a reader send an email asking if he should start Cedric Benson or Jamaal Charles this week (week 15) and this the kind of choice that I love, why?  In this case you are left with a win/win situation, because you have a stud and a guy who has been hot so you really can't make a bad decision (this is really the best case scenario).  So make sure to start your studs and start the players who have been hot, when left with win/win situations don't sweat it too much, and in most cases, hot players and studs, will lead you to a fantasy championships.


Ryan Lester of LestersLegends.com says:

I am a calculated risk taker. For the most part I try to put together a team that allows me to play the match-up game. I will start a lesser quantity for a player with a more favorable match-up. I just try to do it within reason. 

For example, I have Reggie Wayne in several leagues. He takes on Jacksonville this week. He's been struggling the past few weeks, but I'll stick with him. Even if he has an early exit, I feel he's the best option. Meanwhile, when he faces Darrelle Revis and the Jets in Week 16, I want no parts of him.
Unless I'm backed into a corner, I'm not someone who would use Quinton Ganther this week against the Giants.  I would, however, roll with Jamaal Charles against Cleveland over most of this year's first round picks.

I'd also rather have steady production from my WRs than to go for a home run player like Hakeem Nicks. It's great if they have a big game, but devastating if they go belly up on you. 


Smitty of FantasyFootballXtreme.Com says:

I  think the best overall approach when in the fantasy playoffs is to play the odds when it comes to big line-up decisions. It's very tempting to roll with an unproven hot hand, like a Hakeem Nicks... granted, Nicks is a decent-to-solid fantasy WR3 entering Week 15, but it isn't a wise play to use Nicks over more proven options that may have come up short in Week 14. An example of this entering Week 15 would be to bench a guy like Roddy White in favor of a Hakeem Nicks. Some of you might be shaking your head, but believe me, many are considering it. You aren't crazy for giving it some thought, but don't follow through with it. Maybe an even more likely example would be benching a proven fantasy WR2 like Antonio Bryant in favor of a Week 14 standout like Greg Camarillo. Moving on to bigger names, I'd even venture to say that some of you are considering benching players like DeAngelo Williams in Week 15 for lesser name players that are coming off a big Week 14... you might even be considering benching a Mike Sims-Walker (he should be even healthier this week - trust in him!)... you may even be considering benching Steven Jackson in favor of a solid playing Reggie Bush. Bush is a great flex play right now, don't think I'm ripping on the Saints' rusher at all, but don't bench your stud for him... and if you managed to slip past your competition in Week 14 despite the poor showings of guys like Randy Moss, Tom Brady, DeAngelo Williams and others, put the ball in their hands again in Week 15 and sink or swim! Now is not the time to bench your studs... any of them.


FantasyPros911.com

There are three types of owners when the playoffs start in fantasy football.  The first is the “risk taker.”  This owner likes to take chances with their lineup now that they are in the playoffs to try and maximize their total points base on projections. They will totally disregard the players that got them there and base their lineup completely on matchups, injuries, and weather reports.  During the week they change their lineups several times and battle the devil and angel on their shoulders on which players to start.

The second type of owner takes a more conservative approach to handling their lineup.  They tend to stick with the players that got them to the playoff; namely those players they took early in the draft.  These owners careful put together their strategy early in the week, and usually stick with that lineup, only making changes when players are injured. 

The third owner tries to combine the strategies of the first two owners.  They know which players got them to the playoff and will put them in the starting lineup only if the weather and matchups are good enough.  They’ll struggle early in the week on which players to start, but once their lineup is set they’ll feel comfortable enough not to second guess themselves.

Stay away from being the first owner.  That strategy usually ends up blowing up in your face and now is not the time to start second guessing yourself.  Set your lineup early, keep an eye on the weather, and don’t forget to look at the latest injury report.  Most importantly have fun, you made it to the playoffs, enjoy it because more than half your league is now sitting at home wondering what could have been.


Bryce McRae of KFFL.Com says:


With fantasy football playoffs in full swing, what approach do you take when handling your starting lineup?  Are you the risk taker or do you play the players that got you there and why?

A lot of it comes down to the structure of my fantasy team: If I've been a high scorer all year, I'll stick with the boys that got me to the big dance. If I squeaked into the playoffs, either by a late-season winning streak or a fake win-loss record, I'll be more likely to go with some of the riskier players (Note: Getting you to the playoffs and being a risky play aren't necessarily mutually exclusive).

With that said, I'm still not likely to take a huge risk on a player. Look at Ryan Moats, of the Houston Texans; last week he had a decent matchup against the Seattle Seahawks. Houston could be throwing a ton but they have to run to set up their playaction, regardless of how it's working. Plus, they could be running lots to ice the game. What happens? Moats runs 10 times for 43 yards (16 on one carry) and a score before fumbling and spending the rest of the day without a carry. Luckily he gave me that score or else I'd probably be out of it.

It's tough to generalize with so many factors that go into setting a lineup each week. It also depends on when the game is each week; if I don't have to make a choice until the late games on Sunday, I'll see how my team is doing and make my choice based off that. If I'm winning, no need to take that risk. In the end, I probably go with the safer, more conservative choice more often than not.

Jake of Junkyardjake.Com says:

Arguably, it will always be best to avoid overthinking your lineup decisions, and if you have been fortunate enough to make it to the fantasy post-season, it's best to stick with the players who have proven to be the most valuable during the early months of the football season. 
 
That said, there might be a few exceptions to the 'always start your stud' rule, for example: 
 
1) Exceedingly Bad weather. If your favored QB and/or WR players are involved in a very difficult weather situation, it might be worth using replacement options during the playoff weeks.  Of course, make sure the weather is truly an issue before benching your stud players  i.e. unnatural rainfall, monsoon, hail the size of hedgehogs, ridiculous snow or wind, etc...
 
2) Ambiguous injury situation.  In a scenario where one of your elite players is involved in an injury situation and that player has been unable to participate in a normal practice schedule leading up to gameday, it might be safer to find an alternate option.   Even in a case like this though, I think there has to be real uncertainty about the stud players' status.
 
3) Possible Resting of Star Playoff Team Players.  Given the parity in the NFL over the past few years, this hasn't been an issue.  However in 2009, with teams like the Colts and the Saints locking up playoff positions early, it's necessary to consider if players like Peyton Manning and Drew Brees will be playing over the next few weeks.
 
4)  Fantasy Team Defense  If there is one position where matchups should be closely considered, it is with your fantasy team defense. Even if you have a dependable defense you have used all year, if they happen to be facing an elite offense such as Indianapolis, New Orleans or New England during the fantasy playoff weeks it might make sense to bench them. For example, you are probably much better off picking up the defense that is facing Oakland, Detroit or Cleveland instead.
 


Jacob of FantasyFootballFools.Com says:

I've been a risk taker at times in the past, but that's mainly been due to injuries or insufficient starters that allowed me to limp into the playoffs in the first place. I was forced to take risks in those leagues, and I did. In desperation, my subs paid off, but when I have enough confidence in my starters, I haven't been so daring.
 
I'm lucky in that most of the teams I made the playoffs with this year already have a fairly stacked roster. Injuries came and went but left the majority of my players still standing. I could go out and grab the next young stud, but I find it hard to believe that they'll outperform the guys that I have already. So with these teams, I'm confident enough to "stick with my date" so to speak (because making fantasy football sound like Prom should be taken advantage of at every opportunity) unless a player's circumstances change or if a player faces an extremely difficult opponent.

For example, in one league I was dominant enough to build for the playoffs during the second half of the season. As a result, I'm faced with using Steven Jackson, Jamaal Charles, or Beanie Wells as my RB2 this week beside Ray Rice. Steven Jackson led me all the way to promised land. I only subbed him out when a particularly difficult opponent would have limited him. As an RB2, he did me no wrong.
 
But this week he faces the Houston Texans with two new faces on his offensive line and a questionable quarterback under center (rookie Null or Kyle Boller). It's hard to see SJax doing a lot of damage in that situation.
 
Meanwhile, Jamaal Charles faces Cleveland, and he's been the highlight of the Kansas City offense since Larry Johnson's departure. I'd say it's worth taking the risk to sub in Charles this week.
 
But I won't get crazy and bench Ray Rice for Beanie Wells. The Cardinals should feast on the Lions this week, but Rice has been too hot to put on the bench. Even though I might regret not giving Beanie a shot, I have to keep Ray Rice in the lineup. He's done all the work for me thus far. No reason to doubt him now.
 
In the end, it's a judgment call you have to make each season when you get to the playoffs. For the most part, I'd definitely stick with the guys that got you there, but when an absolute gem of a matchup presents itself as a better start than your stud, you should be aggressive and go for it.



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written by Lorene31Oconnor, April 15, 2010
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