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11
Jun
2009
2009 Wide Receivers Average Draft Position-ADP PDF  | Print |  E-mail
Fantasy Football Blog
Written by Garth Gregor   
Average Draft Position (ADP) analysis is a powerful tool for any competitive Fantasy Football Owner. It is useful to see where players are drafted across leagues and formats on average. This allows owner’s to project when to select targeted players and come up with a preliminary draft strategy. 
 
ADP information is based on mockdraftcentral.com data from June 10th. There is still a long time before the season starts and very few real drafts have taken place. The wide receivers have been targeted as either Buy (value exceeds ADP), Neutral (ADP is about right), and Sell (ADP is high considering risk). 
 
altLarry Fitzgerald (ADP 9) This is an explosive wide receiver being drafted where feature running backs with major upside are normally taken. Fitzgerald happens to have an injury prone, but equally talented wide receiver lining up across from him; Anquan Boldin has an ADP of 25. Their numbers are very similar when looking at games played. If fantasy owners are convinced that Warner will remain the Cardinal’s healthy starter in 2009, it is worth moving up a few spots to select him. Owners can make more traditional picks in the first three rounds (RB/RB/WR) and still take advantage of Arizona’s duo. SELL
 
Randy Moss (ADP 17) There are major question marks in the middle of the second round overall and at wide receiver. Tom Brady finding Randy Moss in 2009 is not one of them. Moss managed to break 1,000 yards in 2008 and scoring 11 touchdowns without Brady proving he still has some gas left in the tank. Moss has major upside and will be a must start all season, and a true fantasy factor. BUY
 
Brandon Marshall (ADP 32) Returned from suspension last season with a vengeance, but quickly came back to earth immediately after his 18 catch opener. Losing Jay Cutler hurts his value and he enters the season with major question marks. Even with a stud quarterback, Marshall only has scored a total of 13 touchdowns in the last 31 games.  SELL
 
T.J. Houshmandzadeh (ADP 33) The new Seattle Seahawks primary receiver has a ton of talent. He managed to approach 1,000 yards on 92 catches with a pathetic Cincinnati offense in 2008. Look for him to return to his 2007 form playing indoors at home and against a weaker NFC West. BUY
 
 
Braylon Edwards (ADP 45) Lost all talent and confidence dropping like a stone from 16 touchdowns in 2007 to just six last season. It cannot all be blamed on quarterbacks because look at Calvin Johnson’s steady 2008 production under similar conditions. The potential upside is obviously there, but owners will need to draft other wide receivers just in case. NEUTRAL
 
Roy WilliamsRoy Williams (ADP 46) This position still is early for a player trying to fill Terrell Owens’ shoes. He has a lot to prove, always showing potential, but Williams has never scored more than eight receiving touchdowns in a season. There is no evidence that will change in a full season with Dallas. SELL
 
Lance Moore (ADP 65) Moore is a big reason why Drew Brees is the unquestioned number one quarterback drafted in 2009. He was able to step up with 10 touchdowns and 928 receiving yards when Marques Colston struggled last season. Brees has two proven and legitimate weapons combined with depth at running back and tight end. The New Orleans offense should have plenty of fantasy production to go around this year. BUY
 
Laveranues Coles (ADP 73) May be lost in the shuffle on many draft boards but has some real upside in the eighth round. A lot depends on Palmer’s health, but Coles is a talented player who can put up fantasy points quickly. As usual, Chad Ochocinco should get the majority of the defensive focus. 2009 could go either way for Coles. NEUTRAL
 
Bernard Berrian (ADP 82) Even if Brett Favre does end up in a Vikings uniform, there is no guarantee that Berrian’s numbers will skyrocket. He should be drafted based on his talent and solid 2008, not Favre’s retirement status. Defenses will continue to game plan for Adrian Peterson giving Berrian frequent opportunities for big plays. BUY 
 
Ted Ginn Jr. (ADP outside of top 100) Showed real chemistry with Chad Pennington last season. Ginn has rare upside for a player being drafted so late, he caught 73 passes for 790 yards and snuck in 4 total touchdowns in his second year as a pro. He also has solid skill players around him to keep opposing defenses honest. BUY 
What other wide receivers seem undervalued or overvalued going into the 2009 season? Look for future articles examining the rest of the fantasy football positions and significant changes in player’s ADP from one week to the next.

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