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2009 Tight Ends Average Draft Position (ADP) PDF Print E-mail
Fantasy Football Blog
Tuesday, 16 June 2009 00:00
Average Draft Position (ADP) analysis is a powerful tool for any competitive Fantasy Football owner. It is useful to see where players are drafted across leagues and formats on average. This allows owners to project when to select targeted players and come up with a preliminary draft strategy. 
 
ADP information is based on mockdraftcentral.com data from June 15. There is still a long time before the season starts and very few real drafts have taken place. The tight ends have been targeted as either Buy (value exceeds ADP), Neutral (ADP is about right), and Sell (ADP is high considering risk).
 
altJason Witten (ADP 42) This is much too early to take a tight end with the talent still left on the board. Even within his position, Witten’s red zone production ranks him in a tie for 10th place with just four touchdowns scored in ‘08. He was second in yardage and third in receptions last season. SELL
 
Antonio Gates (ADP 53) Gates is a strong red zone threat, scoring a touchdown in 26 of his last 48 regular season contests. His receptions and yardage follow as a frequent safety valve for the offense. The Chargers also spend time designing plays that give him favorable coverage. BUY
 
Tony Gonzalez (ADP 58) Tony Gonzalez led all tight ends in receptions, yards, and touchdowns in 2008. The two knocks against him are his age and the change of scenery. Owners are wondering how he will fit into the Falcons’ improving offensive strategy, but it is a safe bet that they will find a way to involve him. NEUTRAL
 
Dallas Clark (ADP 64) Clark had 30 receptions, 335 yards passing, and three touchdowns in his last four games of 2008. Clark offers plenty of short receptions and some scoring from this position. One of the top three tight ends will start a run and this Colt has major upside. BUY
 
Kellen Winslow (ADP 73) Looking to return to his monster 2006 and 2007 form, Winslow was wise to get out of Cleveland. Tampa Bay will have to figure out how to get him the ball and he has only scored 11 total touchdowns in his first 44 career games. SELL
 
Chris Cooley (ADP 84) Unfortunately, he only scored one touchdown in 2008. His receptions and yardage have been improving each season. Cooley was second only to Gonzalez, grabbing 83 balls, and when he can regains his red zone form he will be a steal this late in the draft. BUY
 
Greg Olsen (ADP 85) Will benefit greatly from having Jay Cutler join the talented Matt Forte. Owners have been waiting for Olsen to explode and he finished 2008 strong with three touchdowns in his last four games. He has had problems wrestling playing time from Desmond Clark in his first two seasons but the talent is there. NEUTRAL
 
Owen Daniels (ADP 90) He is a solid player available toward the end of the run on tight ends. Daniels has improved each year and Houston will have a strong offense entering the season. Daniels is a safe pick at starter for those with the patience to wait for their tight end selection. BUY
 
John Carlson (ADP 101) With a solid rookie season, Carlson should improve across the board. The potential is there but it will be risky to count on this Seahawk to be a consistent contributor in 2009. He did find pay dirt five times last season. NEUTRAL
 
Zach Miller (ADP 118) If any team should be taking advantage of a safety valve it is Oakland. Unfortunately, that seems to be the only time they look in his direction. Expect more short yardage receptions, decent yardage, and very little scoring. SELL
 
What other tight ends seem undervalued or overvalued going into the 2009 season? Look for future articles examining the rest of the fantasy football positions and significant changes in player’s ADP from one week to the next.
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