Average Draft Position (ADP) analysis is a powerful tool for any competitive Fantasy Football Owner. It is useful to see where players are drafted across leagues and formats on average. This allows owners to project when to select targeted players and come up with a preliminary draft strategy. 

ADP information is based on mockdraftcentral.com data from June 5. There is still a long time before the season starts and very few real drafts have taken place. Ten quarterbacks have been targeted as either Buy (value exceeds ADP), Neutral (ADP is about right), and Sell (ADP is high considering risk).  

Tom Brady (ADP 23) -
Probably the most talked about and intriguing pick of 2009 drafts. Where will a player that could be the difference between winning and losing every single week be taken? He has gone anywhere from the sixth pick to the 30th in mock drafts. When it comes to a live draft, owners will not be able to resist his gaudy 52 total touchdowns and 4,806 passing yards from 2007. New England has a messy backfield as usual, but they have added the ancient, but explosive, Joey Galloway for use in their three-wide receiver sets. BUY 

Kurt Warner (ADP 39) Turning 38 in June, turning the ball over generously in games, and the risk of turning the starting job over to Matt Leinart has not scared off fantasy owners. His success with his three wide receivers, all with an ADP in the top 80, and strong 2008 statistics are too tempting. His offseason hip surgery may have a few Fantasy Owners worried, but expect him to go sooner rather than later. SELL 

Tony Romo (ADP 43) Romo lost a statistical beast at wide receiver, which will hurt the young quarterback’s overall numbers. He will continue to have tunnel vision for Jason Witten, and Roy Williams is no slouch. The Dallas quarterback will also try and prove that Terrell Owens was just a distraction that was doing more harm than good. NEUTRAL 

Aaron Rodgers (ADP 49) Rodgers was successful in his first year as a starter despite the intense scrutiny of Favre fans across the country. He was involved in 32 touchdowns and threw for 4,000 yards to the delight of fantasy owners everywhere. Look for him to build on last year’s success as Green Bay welcomes back the same group of talented receivers. BUY 

Donovan McNabb (ADP 63) There is tremendous upside for a mid-round pick. McNabb quietly played in all 16 games in 2008, accounted for 25 touchdowns, and fell just short of passing for 4,000 yards. This Eagle can crack the top five quarterbacks, when healthy, with weapons like DeSean Jackson, Kevin Curtis, and Brian Westbrook. BUY 

Matt Ryan (ADP 73) This budding star had a fantastic rookie season for the Atlanta Falcons starting all 16 games and limiting turnovers. He improved throughout the season and had a strong performance against the Arizona Cardinals in the playoffs. The emergence of Michael Turner as a fantasy star will keep defenses honest, and the addition of Tony Gonzalez as a safety valve will complement Roddy White. NEUTRAL 

Carson Palmer (ADP 93) The Bengals' quarterback is coming off a 2008 injury and will also be an interesting pick. He can’t be trusted as a fantasy starter with his labels of injury and turnover prone. The addition of Laveranues Coles to replace T. J. Houshmandzadeh gives him a fighting chance as a comeback story in 2009. SELL 

Eli Manning (ADP outside of top 100) Eli is a solid quarterback but has never been a fantasy goldmine. Plaxico Burress and Jeremy Shockey have boosted the Giants quarterback's numbers in the past, but for now, there is no legitimate threat on the roster. The younger Manning does not have as much upside as other late-round quarterbacks. SELL  

Matt Hasselbeck (ADP outside of top 100) Hasselbeck has terrific upside for a player being drafted outside of the top 100. When this Seahawk has played the entire season, his numbers compare to many peers in the top 10. The addition of T.J. Houshmandzadeh and the return of second-year tight end John Carlson will give Hasselbeck additional threats up the field. The question marks Hasselbeck will have to answer are: will he be healthy, and whether Nate Burleson or Deion Branch can step up in 2009. BUY 

Trent Edwards (ADP outside of top 100) The Bills quarterback has benefitted as much as anyone in the NFL by the addition of Terrell Owens as a weapon to line up across from Lee Evans. He will be tested early with talk of a no huddle offense and the three-game suspension of Marshawn Lynch that has been appealed. Edwards could breakout in 2009 and make a solid option for fantasy owners. BUY 

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Maniaxs
written by Garth Gregor, June 16, 2009

Steve Adams,

We are glad to see you over on the new site. Most of the standard fantasy football columns will be up in the next couple weeks. Some of those will be on the Premium side but there should be plenty of free stuff as well. The approach to ADP has been analysis of the top 100 players and where they have been drafted early on. Potential breakouts before and during the season are my favorites and as you point out, are largely how Fantasy Championships are won. Let me know if you have any specific questions. Thanks for interest - Garth

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Cutler
written by Garth Gregor, June 16, 2009

DOCKSQUAD,

Cutler did not make it into this piece but here is my take. He had a monster season last year finishing top five. The change in scenery is seeing him selected in almost the exact same spot in early mockdraftcentral.com(ADP 73) and yahoo(ADP 70). The biggest question mark is his receivers. If the season started today, his wideouts would likely be Devin Harris and Earl Bennet(zero NFL catches in his rookie season). That is a huge downgrade from Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal. Even with this concern, I consider him a BUY but would pick up a solid QB2 shortly after selecting Cutler. Thanks for interest - Garth

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cutler
written by docksquad, June 16, 2009

no jay cutler? what?

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No meat just Fat in your articles
written by Steve Adams, June 12, 2009

Was a big fan of Maniax last year so I came over to check out your merger. Have to admit I am a bit disappointed. Your ADP wide receiver and QB articles are hitting the top in their positions and skip any rankings on the other 90%. Everybody can pretty well figure out the top group. Fantasy Championships are based on sorting out the bottom 80% of positions. Have not been able to find any over all position rankings, top 200, potential busts, or potential breakouts articles on your site. These are basic columns in most fantasy formats. Will keep looking and wish you the best of luck.

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