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30 Jul 2009 |
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| Average Draft Position (ADP) analysis is a powerful tool for any competitive Fantasy Football owner. It is useful to see where players are drafted across leagues and formats on average. This allows owners to project when to select targeted players and come up with a preliminary draft strategy.
There have not been a lot of major changes over the last month. With training camps starting up, we can expect players' ADP values to rise and fall quickly as news trickles out. A few players who have been in the news include the following:  Brett Favre (ADP ESPN 131/Yahoo 120) - It looks like that at 39-years old, this retirement is for good. This means fantasy Football Owners can stop wasting their 13th and 14th round picks and concentrate on depth, handcuffs and other sleepers. Favre has reportedly turned down the Vikings and the team claims they will not give him another chance if he has a change of heart. It is tough to resist a potential top 15 quarterback with Favre’s history and statistics. Favre played as well as any quarterback in the league in the first four games of 2008 throwing for 935 yards and 12 touchdowns. His age and an arm injury caught up to him, posting only 2,537 yards, 10 touchdowns and a whopping 19 turnovers in the final 12 games.
For the Vikings, QB Sage Rosenfels should get a value boost in larger leagues. For now he is only sitting on 2.5 percent of ESPN rosters and six percent of Yahoo rosters and has been lucky to be drafted as a final round flyer. He enters the Metrodome with a real opportunity to shine and will be playing in a run-first offense where all of the defensive attention will be focused on stopping RB Adrian Peterson.
Rosenfels had an incredible 66.7 percent completion rate in the six full games he played in 2008. His 6:12 touchdown to turnover rate was more representative of a player who was unprepared and unsure of whether he would be starting from week to week. The Minnesota Vikings quarterback position battle is something we will keep an eye on during training camp. There is no reason he can’t succeed with talented but inconsistent options like WR Bernard Berrian and TE Visanthe Shiancoe drawing single coverage.
Recommendation - consider Rosenfels as a free agent pickup once he secures the starting position.
Derrick Mason (ADP ESPN 170/Yahoo 113) - Mason is still sitting on 34.9 percent of ESPN rosters and 50 percent of Yahoo rosters. There is the slightest chance that a respectable contract will lure the 35-year old out of his surprise retirement. Fantasy Owners should look elsewhere for cheap points-per-reception wide receivers for now.
QB Joe Flacco was impressive in his rookie season, but will have to find others to make up Mason's 183 receptions since 2007. TE Todd Heap will try to return to his Pro Bowl form and WR Mark Clayton will have the chance to step up as the Ravens’ primary receiver. Fantasy Owners are taking notice of Clayton, drafting him with an ADP of 117 in ESPN leagues and sticking him on 64 percent of Yahoo benches. With only 10 total receiving touchdowns scored in his first four seasons, Clayton is a definite gamble. The Ravens have also shown interest in Denver WR Brandon Marshall.
Recommendation – Clayton cannot be trusted even as a third wide receiver and should only be drafted in the final rounds.
Braylon Edwards (ADP ESPN 51/Yahoo 49) - After a disappointing 873 receiving yards and three touchdowns scored in 2008, Edwards is entering 2009 with health concerns. An unspecified injury and reports that he failed a physical may scare off some owners. His ADP may drop a bit further but his amazing top five receiver status from 2007 will tempt other owners.
Recommendation – Let this combination of lost confidence, health concerns and poor 2008 performance take up a roster spot on another owner’s team.
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Tags: Brett Favre Sage Rosenfels Adrian Peterson Visanthe Shiancoe Bernard Berrian Derrick Mason Joe Flacco Todd Heap Mark Clayton Brandon Marshall Braylon Edwards FantasyPros911.com
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